King George At Ascot

3.20 Summer Mile (1m) Group 2

Carlton House is the clear stand out performer here but he still has questions to answer; he has not faced 8f or soft(ish) ground since his Maiden days. Nevertheless, he us understandably a short priced favourite (4/5 best price) as he brings top tier Group 1 form to the table, something none of the others can boast in their recent form. He quickened smartly in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes last time suggesting that another drop in trip might be in his favour, especially as he has travelled keenly on both occasions this season over 10f. He should win but Questioning at 8/1 makes EW appeal. I backed him in the Cambridgeshire off of 99 last season when he got absolutely no run at all and he is now rated 114. Typical. This season, he has twice chased home proven mudlark Penitent in very soft ground and beat an admittedly below par Twice Over in the Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket in between. He appeared not to quite get home at Chester last time over 10f but has had a nice break since. His proven ability to handle softer ground and stay more than this 8f will stand him in good stead. 

1pt EW Questioning at 8/1 with Boylesports

4.35 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (1m4f) Group 1

This year's King George could hardly be better, featuring winners of the Arc, the King George, the Eclipse, the Breeders' Cup Turf, the Coronation Cup, the St Leger, the Melbourne Cup, the Hong Kong Vase, the Prix Du Jockey Club, the Grosser Preis Von Baden, the Grosser Preis Von Berlin, the Japanese Derby and so on. 10 horses who, together, have won 14 Group 1 races, won in 9 different countries and earned £14,177,127 in prize money. A brilliant race in prospect.

Nathaniel emerged victorious in a scrappy and unsatisfactory renewal last year. He had St Nicholas Abbey back in 3rd that day but it would be folly to read too much into the form. In two starts since Nathaniel has confirmed himself a colt of the highest calibre with a decent performance in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in far from ideal conditions and a convincing win in the Eclipse at Sandown two weeks ago. He also has another impressive course and distance win to his name in the King Edward VII at the Royal Meeting in 2011. His credentials are rock solid with conditions likely to be perfectly in his favour too. The one question mark is whether he is over his race in the Eclipse. If he is then he will take the beating and is my idea of the most likely winner. I have backed him accordingly at 3/1. 

Sea Moon started favourite for the St Leger after romping home in the Great Voltigeur on good to soft ground but could only finish 3rd after suffering a troubled passage. The ground was fast when he finished 3rd behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Breeders' Cup Turf but he was back with a bang in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, a race which had looked a deep renewal beforehand. He travelled and quickened well to stretch clear for a convincing success. I doubt he needs to find much improvement, if any, to take this and he has a strong chance.

St Nicholas Abbey was the antepost favourite but has now been usurped at the head of the market, and rightly so in my opinion. Arguably he is seen to better effect going left handed (Timeform ratings of 130/126/127/126/126 left handed and 114+/124/118/120/99 right handed at 4 and 5 years). That could be a red herring of sorts in that there can be little doubt that his major targets (perhaps with the exception of this race 12 months ago) have all been left handed. Nevertheless, it is something to consider. Moreover, his best performances have come on a sound surface, something that he will not get on Saturday, and something that both Nathaniel and Sea Moon, his major market rivals, have both shown a liking for.

Dunaden was a fast finishing 2nd in the Hardwicke behind Sea Moon after suffering trouble in running but I find it hard to believe that he would have beaten the winner, for all that he would have been closer. He is the type who could easily go close if things fall his way but I would expect Sea Moon to confirm the form regardless.

Danedream was a hugely impressive winner of the Arc last year and it may, therefore, seem surprising that she is available at 10/1. That is a reflection of both the strength of this race and the fact that she has yet to show anything like the same form in 3 subsequent starts. She took her time to show her best last season (24th July when winning her first Group 1 by 5 lengths) and if the same is true this time around she has to be a major threat.

Deep Brillante won the Japanese Derby on his last start and is the only 3yo in the field. He adds a great deal of interest, being something of an unknown quantity, but that also makes his chance difficult to determine. I have read that he can be keen and the ground would be another question mark.

Reliable Man won the French Derby last season but has been largely disappointing since. He ran with some promise at Ascot behind So You Think but it is hard to think he is good enough to win a race as strong as this.

Brown Panther was 2nd in the St Leger last year with Sea Moon back in 3rd. He was very poor at Chester on his seasonal reappearance but back to form (to a certain extent anyway) when winning a Listed race at Pontefract. Much more required to win this.

Masked Marvel won the St Leger, ahead of both Sea Moon and Brown Panther, but has been disappointing since. He, understandably, flopped in the Arc and has had the ground and track as excuses this season. Once again, the ground will not be in his favour.

Robin Hood is the Ballydoyle pacemaker for St Nicholas Abbey.

Conclusion: So long as he is over his Eclipse exertions I fancy Nathaniel to once again confirm himself as a horse of the highest calibre. Everything apart from the shorter than ideal break is in his favour. Sea Moon, who is progressive, rates the main danger with ground and track question marks for St Nicholas Abbey. Danedream has a big chance if she can recapture her Arc form but has not looked the same horse this season.

2pts Win Nathaniel at 3/1 with Paddy Power (Antepost)

Also going to throw some double arrows:

1pt EW Questioning at 8/1 and Nathaniel at 11/4 with Stan James

1pt EW Carlton House at 4/5 and Sea Moon at 3/1 with Paddy Power