It is rare that an opportunity arises
for a bet on Eventing and even rarer still that I think it might be a good idea
to take up the offer. As it's the London Olympics and as the bookies have
deigned to price up a markets it seems like an opportunity too unique to miss.
Greenwich
It is worth bearing in mind that the
Olympic competition in Greenwich Park will be far removed from what many
combinations are used to. The terrain is hilly, the cross country course twisty
and the atmosphere more intense than any will have experienced before. It is,
therefore, sensible to have in mind what might be called the 'Greenwich
Factor', that ability to handle the unique demands that this competition
represents, when analysing what might happen. However, it is also important
that too much is not made of it. It is likely that previous form will stand up
in most cases, even if some will be better able to handle the unusual
characteristics of the venue and the competition. Who is best prepared or best
able to handle Greenwich is uncertain. I recently read an article in which Zara
Phillips commented that her ride High Kingdom was suited to the course because
he was small and manoeuvrable. In that
same article Mary King said that her ride Imperial Cavalier was suited to the
course because he was a big and powerful. In other words, a 'Greenwich Horse'
is whatever the rider wants it to be, there is no pre-set ideal. However,
regardless of physique, I think there is little doubt that rideability will be
crucial. Valuable time will be wasted if a horse requires too much setting up
and balancing for fences and tight corners.
Germany - 5/2
The German team are favourites on the
back of a convincing success at the European Championships at Luhmühlen last year. They are traditionally
strong in the dressage phase but have increasingly become a force to be
reckoned with throughout the competition. You can expect them to be leading
heading into the jumping phases, the two questions are; by how far and can they
maintain their lead? I think the answers are; probably quite a long way and yes.
- Michael
Jung and Sam are the reigning World and European Champions and he is a
strong favourite to be the first rider in history to hold all three major
titles at the same time. Sam is strong in the dressage phase, has never
had a XC jumping fault, is fast against the clock and has become an
assured show jumper.
- Sandra
Auffarth and Opgun Louvo took the individual silver medal at the Europeans
last year and their form since has been strong. Another bold showing likely.
- Ingrid
Klimke is another who is likely to excel in the dressage on Butts
Abraxxas. However, her jumping record is slightly chequered to say the
least. Their XC record has the odd blip but it is the SJ that has proven
their Achilles heal, typically having at least one fence down
and often more, including when six fell at the Europeans last year to drop
Ingrid out of individual medal contention. If things were to fall into
place a brilliant result is by no means out of the question.
- King Artus,
ridden by Dirk Schrade, was 4th at the Europeans. Their dressage record is
very solid but less exceptional than the first three riders named.
However, their jumping record, both across the country and in the SJ, has
been consistently good.
- The final
German rider is Peter Thomsen on Barny. Their jumping record is very
strong indeed but their dressage scores are the weakest of the German team
but still much better than the majority.
Conclusion: Reigning
European and Olympic Champions and a strong chance of adding another Olympic
Gold to their haul. In Michael Jung, Sandra Auffarth, Ingrid Klimke and Dirk
Schrade they have four riders with realistic individual medal ambitions. Only
three scores count leaving them with room for error, and Peter Thomsen is
likely to provide very solid back up with a good score should the better
dressage combinations fall by the wayside in the jumping phases.
Great Britain - 11/4
Great Britain has a fantastic record in
Eventing and that success is expected to continue at the London Olympics. The
British team boasts a wealth of experience in the shape of William Fox-Pitt,
Mary King and Tina Cook, who have all participated in previous Olympics, and
Zara Phillips and Nicola Wilson who both have considerable previous
Championship experience. The British team did suffer the loss of Piggy French
with both her rides, Jakata and Topper W, picking up late injuries. In
particular, the latter named, winner of the Olympic Test Event at Greenwich
last July, would have added invaluable course experience to the Team.
- William Fox-Pitt had an
embarrassment of riches to choose from but injuries to Cool Mountain and
Olso limited his options. He rides Lionheart, a relatively inexperienced
10yo, but a horse who William describes as "made for Greenwich".
His dressage has been consistently good but has yet to challenge the type
of scores that the German Team can be expected to post. However, his
scores are improving all the time and a new personal best is far from
impossible. His career to date has been marked by a fabulous record in the
SJ, something which may well be of added significance with two rounds.
- Mary King is the veteran of
five previous Olympic Games and searches for that elusive Gold medal on
Imperial Cavalier. They have posted dressage scores in the 30s before but
not consistently. In the jumping phases they have been strong, bar a fall
at the Europeans last year.
- Tina Cook rides Miners
Frolic, who very nearly lost his life after a severe bout of colic just a
year ago. They won team and individual Bronze medals at the Beijing
Olympics and team and individual Gold at the Europeans in 2009 but have
suffered mixed fortunes since. Their dressage has been consistent in the
mid to low 40s, they are solid XC but the SJ has been a little mixed,
including when three fell at Bramham earlier this year.
- Zara Phillips will attract
much of the attention but she is well capable of handling the pressure as
she has shown in the past. She rides High Kingdom, another relatively
inexperienced horse, but one who is well balanced and
rideable which should suit Greenwich. Their dressage is improving but
remains a notch or two below what the Germans will be scoring .
- Nicola Wilson replaced Piggy
French on the team and, riding Opposition Buzz, will resume her pathfinder
role from recent Championships. Their dressage is the weakest phase but is
going in the right direction but they are very reliable XC and good in the
SJ.
Conclusion: Britain brings a strong
team to these Championships seeking another Olympic medal. Everyone will want
it to be Gold but I fear that Silver or Bronze is the best that we
can realistically hope for. All horses will need to perform
significant career bests in the dressage phase, jump double clears and hope for
errors from the German team to win the Gold medal. That is not completely out
of the question because the Germans have capitulated in dramatic style in the
past.
New Zealand - 7/1
New Zealand produced a fine performance
at the Kentucky World Equestrian Games in 2010 where they won team Bronze and
Andrew Nicholson individual Bronze. Arguably they travel to London with a
stronger team and they must not be underestimated.
- Andrew Nicholson is the man
in form having posted a 1-2 at Barbury last month. He leaves Avebury in
his stable in favour of his WEG Bronze medallist, Nereo. He is
consistently good across all three phases and, in particular, his prowess
in the SJ will serve him well in the individual competition.
- Mark Todd is something of an
Eventing legend, winning back to back individual Olympic Golds on the
mighty but diminutive Charisma. He retired from the sport but his
subsequent return has seen him back as good as ever, winning Badminton for
a 4th time in 2011 on Land Vision. That horse is injured so Mark rides
the inexperienced 10yo, Campino. It is a big ask for the horse
and maybe comes a year too soon but never discount the master and a bold
showing is a distinct possibility.
- Caroline Powell and Lenamore
return to the New Zealand team after the horse's 'retirement' from
Championship selection. The 2010 Burghley Winner is now 19 years of age
but remains as enthusiastic as ever. His dressage is solid, and could be
very good if he keeps his cool, but he excels in the jumping phases.
- Jonathan Paget and Clifton
Promise bring solid 4* experience to the team. It is doubtful whether they
quite have enough for individual honours but a solid team score can be
expected.
- Jonelle Richards rides
Flintstar. Their form is not the strongest in the competition and the New
Zealanders will hope to post three superior scores.
Conclusion: The New Zealand team have
four very solid riders, with Jonelle Richards the weak link. Andrew Nicholson
has a good chance at an individual medal once again and, if two of the others
put their best foot forward, then a team medal is theirs for the taking.
Australia - 8/1
The Australian team is headed by
the husband-wife duo of Clayton and Lucinda Fredericks. They have done well in
past Olympic Games, winning team Gold in 1992, 1996 and 2000.
- Bendigo III is the mount of
Clayton Fredericks. They are one of few combinations that could challenge
the Germans in the dressage phase. The SJ would perhaps be their weakest
phase but they have definite individual medal prospects.
- Lucinda Fredericks rides
Flying Finish who finished 2nd at Luhmühlen on their
4* debut. Their dressage has been strong throughout and so has their
jumping record. The concern would be if the XC optimum time was
tight.
- Christopher Burton and
Holstein Park Leilani showed exceptional form in Australia before moving
to be based in Britain with the Olympics in mind. Since then, their record
has been a little patchy with a unseat at Burghley and a disappointing SJ
round at Pau last year. The two SJ rounds would be a concern as the mare
also had a poor SJ record in Australia before Christopher took the ride.
- Those same comments apply to
Sam Griffiths and Happy Times. Their last six FEI SJ rounds have yielded
12, 8, 12, 12, 12, 16. That has to be a major concern, but a 4th place at
Badminton in 2011 show that they are well up to this level if the dreaded
coloured poles do not start to fall.
- Andrew Hoy is an Australian
team stalwart and rides the inexperienced Rutherglen. He is another who
finds the SJ phase difficult but is capable of posting a good dressage
score.
Conclusion: The Fredericks aside, the
Aussie team looks to be at the mercy of the final phase with three out of five
team members have poor recent records in the SJ. With doubts about Flying
Finish's ability to make the time it would appear that their medal prospects
could be vulnerable.
USA - 10/1
The US team is coached by Captain Mark
Phillips, father of Zara. In that respect he must have mixed emotions but I am
sure he would settle for a victory for either party. He stands down from his
position after the Games and no doubt he will want to end on a high.
- Boyd Martin and Otis
Barbotiere fall into the solid category. Decent if unspectacular dressage
and a good jumping record but lack that little extra to contend for
Individual honours.
- The same comments apply to
Karen O'Connor and Mr Medicott, previously a member of the German team
when ridden by Frank Ostholt.
- Tiana Coudray and Ringwood
Magister have a less reliable record across country. They posted some
dressage scores in the 30s in America but, since moving to the UK, have
not got near that level.
- William Coleman rides
Twizzel. They have good form in America, with the occasional blip, but
have yet to show the scores necessary for individual honours.
- Mystery Whisper is a new
ride for Phillip Dutton this season but they already have three 3* wins in
America together. Their run at Barbury recently suggests that they might
still be behind the very best but Dutton is very experienced and well
capable of challenging on the big occasion.
Conclusion: The USA team looks to be a
case of solid but unspectacular. It would be a surprise if they were able to
challenge for the team Gold medal or individual medals but they have five solid
riders who look sure to post good scores.
Canada - 20/1
The surprise package at the 2010 World
Equestrian Games, taking home the team Silver medal. However, it is very hard
to make a convincing case for them to replicate their success here.
France - 20/1
Team Gold medallists back in 2004 but
less of a force now. They have 2008 Badminton winner Nicolas Touzaint and
Hildago De L'Ile to spearhead their team. A team medal looks to be beyond them.
Holland - 40/1
Sweden - 40/1
Ireland - 50/1
Belgium - 66/1
Brazil - 125/1
Japan - 150/1
Conclusion
Much as I, and everyone else, would
love to see a British triumph, it is very hard indeed to see past the German
team. They have great strength in depth giving them room for error should it be
required. Their strength in the first phase, which no other team comes close to
matching, will likely give them a significant lead upon which they can build.
The British are arguably next best but their price of 11/4 is far too short
considering that the German team (5/2) is much stronger. How on earth the two
can be joint favourites in places is beyond me. Perhaps the home advantage,
perhaps the 'Greenwich Factor', perhaps something else, but, whatever the
reason, they look much too short to me. New Zealand (7/1), Australia (8/1) and
the USA (10/1) fill the second tier. Preference is for the former who look
solid and capable of posting a very competitive score if things were to fall
into place. In the shape of Nereo and Lenamore they have two proven top level
performers likely to be competitive in the individual standings. If Mark
Todd can conjure a career best from Campino then they could
well challenge Britain for Silver. The advantage that the British
have is they have five strong combinations where as Jonelle Richards is a weaker
link for the Kiwis 5th rider. Australia have too many poor jumpers for them to
be a safe proposition for a team medal and the USA lack a standout combination
or two to propel them up the table.
Whatever may happen it is impossible to
escape the conclusion that Germany are outstanding value at 5/2 to retain their
Olympic Crown. I am fairly confident that we are into maximum bet territory.
5pts Win Germany Eventing Olympic Team Gold at 5/2 with Various
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