The
Cheltenham Festival might seem a long way away but for National Hunt
enthusiasts it is never far from our thoughts: as one four day extravaganza
draws to a close our attentions turn to the next with a near seamless
transition. Flat racing through the summer months offers an adequate substitute
but little more than that and it is certainly no comparison to the 'proper'
action which will begin in earnest in October.
With that in mind, the very very interesting news that I
promised. I am somewhat biased but I can think of few potential developments
that would rank alongside let alone supersede this one. I have had
questions, and lots of them. Is it a hurdler? Is it a chaser? Is it a novice?
And so on. At the end of last season the answers would have been a definite
'no, yes, yes'. However, if what I have read is correct then the answers
would be 'yes, no, no'. The horse in question is currently a short priced
favourite for the Arkle and also features near the top of the Champion Hurdle
market. His name is Simonsig.
Last
season, Geraghty said that "he really wants
a fence" and that "he'll be a better chaser than a hurdler I'd
imagine which would make him very exciting". Henderson said
that "he's done his bit now and that's
probably the last time we'll see him over hurdles". Clearly
the plan was to go chasing but I understand that David Minton said at the
Million In Mind open day that the new plan was to stay over hurdles with the
Champion Hurdle as his target. It is worth bearing in mind that Nicky Henderson
has said in an interview with At The Races on 9th August that he "would like to
think he's an Arkle horse". However, even that apparent declaration of intent provides clear
evidence of a shift in their thinking. Henderson also said "if he went to fences" making it
clear that Simonsig going chasing is no formality. There was also something strange about the question that Mick Fitzgerald asked. He asked about trip when surely the obvious question was hurdling or fences. Perhaps I am reading too much into it but it appeared that the matter was deliberately avoided. Another point of interest is that Minton was putting up Simonsig as his banker and charity bet in the Neptune at Festival Preview Evenings long before Henderson had committed him to the race. Is he one step ahead of the game once again?
Interestingly
there has been a noticeable reaction in the Champion Hurdle market
on Betfair with him being matched as low as 12.0 a week ago having been available at 18.5 the week before that, and nearer 25.0 not long before that. He has drifted a little
subsequently after the Henderson interview but it would appear that the money
has followed the news to a certain extent. It is also worth pointing out that
he remains a clear favourite in the newly opened Arkle market on Betfair but
has drifted a little from as low as 4.0 to 5.0, admittedly for small money.
Whatever your interpretation of the market moves, Simonsig's Champion Hurdle
market activity summary shows a marked downward trend, especially when compared
to other leading contenders. Significant? Maybe.
It
was clear that connections felt certain that chasing was his game. It does beg
the question as to why this has possibly changed. One obvious reason is the
presence of stablemate Sprinter Sacre in the 2m chase division, another is the
abundance of novice chase prospects at Seven Barrows, also that Simonsig has
schooled poorly or that Henderson has decided that the Champion Hurdle is
up for grabs with his flying grey.
Last
season he showed that he had an exceptional engine but there was also evidence
of possible jumping frailties. Quotes of 10/3 for the Arkle when he has
never jumped a regulation fence in public and had jumped less
than perfectly in his points and hurdle races are of little
interest. As the saying goes, jumping is the name of the game, and an
engine alone is not enough if the fences prove a continual problem. He would
have won his points even easier had there been no obstacles standing in his
path: his maiden at Kirkistown - http://www.p2ptv.ie/?tube=102 and
a winners of two at Limavady - http://www.p2ptv.ie/?tube=104.
Nevertheless, I think it is possible that too much has been made of his
jumping by many. When he is good he is very good but he has yet to learn to
shorten when required. There is every chance that will come with time
and experience and when the hurdles/fences do not break his imperious
stride he will take even more catching.
I think both the Champion Hurdle and the Arkle are lacking a little in quality at this stage and Simonsig's claims in both look outstanding. A thorough
perusal of the quoted Arkle contenders leaves one in little doubt that his
short price is understandable. Similarly, in the Champion Hurdle, Hurricane Fly
heads the market followed by Rock On Ruby, Spirit Son, Cinders And Ashes,
Grandouet, Zarkandar and Darlan. The first thing to note is the dominance of
Henderson. Does it suggest a lack of confidence in his challenge
that Simonsig is possibly being rerouted? Or perhaps one should interpret it as
a vote of confidence in Simonsig's chance? Certainly many or all of the above
have question marks hanging over them, notably Hurricane Fly who will be
a flat bred 9yo exposed off a strong pace, Spirit Son and
Grandouet who have injury absences to overcome, and Cinders And Ashes and
Darlan who looked the best of only a moderate bunch of 2m novices last
season. The temptation for Henderson to play a trump card in the shape of Simonsig in the premier hurdle
race of the season is understandable, especially if it
means that he is kept away from his other ace in the pack, Sprinter Sacre.
I am indifferent to the news as a racing fan because the
Arkle would have been great but the Champion Hurdle is just as good. As a betting man
I am possibly rather pleased. He is 10/3 for the Arkle and 10/1 for the
Champion Hurdle and I think he could win either. Unfortunately I was too slow
to snaffle the juiciest prices for the Champion Hurdle on Betfair when I first
heard the news but if he is indeed headed down that route then prices around the 14/1 mark make plenty of appeal, even with lingering uncertainty as to his
chosen campaign. I think his current price allows for a deal of doubt about his target and, if my interpretation of the current situation is correct, he will be a good deal shorter in not very long. If I am wrong then so be it. With a run he rates as
the most likely winner in my book and, at the prices, the gamble on his
participation is one worth taking. It makes enough appeal for me to be sorely tempted to break my unwritten rule against antepost bets before the start of the season proper, adding him to my portfolio that currently includes
Sanctuaire at 66/1 for the Champion Chase, Riverside Theatre at 75/1 for the
King George/Gold Cup double and Silviniaco Conti at 33/1 for the King George.
So very sorely tempted.
2pts
Win Simonsig Champion Hurdle at around 15.0 on Betfair
