Tuesday
Supreme
Cinders
And Ashes ran out a ready winner of the Supreme, despite a blunder at the last.
I couldn't have had him on the form he had shown this season. He had done
little to persuade me he was better than the horse that was exposed at the top
level in Bumpers last season. However, he was the clear paddock pick to my eye,
and I considered him worthy of an EW investment as a result. I had no strong
opinion on who would win from a form angle so was happy to back who looked like
they could after a paddock inspection. It was very tight in behind for the next
4 places, with Darlan staying on strongly up the hill. I promise you he was but
I would not have believed it myself. Perhaps the bridle
horse label has been attached prematurely. My initial impression
was that the winner was definitely the horse to take out of the race. That
might seem obvious but it isn't always the case. Those in behind finished in a
bit of a heap, something I never like to see in such a contest. It usually
means that none of them are very good, rather than they all are. I didn't think
it was the best renewal before the race and would be inclined to stick to that
view for the time being. However, the winner was nicely clear, despite his last
flight mistake, and I would give him a chance in open company. He has a
bit to find to be challenging for top honours against the established stars but
a Champion Hurdle campaign appears entirely reasonable. He should improve again
and is another one for the McCain/Maguire team to go to war with next season.
Arkle
Sprinter
Sacre was exceptional in the Arkle, treating his opposition with contempt. With
the established 2m division looking threadbare at the top the time is ripe for
a new young superstar to fill the void. He looks well up to the job. However,
it is impossible to look upon quotes of no bigger than 11/8 with anything
but incredulity. He might look brilliant but the very fact that Big Buck's
can be backed at 2/1 for the 2013 World Hurdle tells its own story. A horse
that just might be great at 11/8 or a horse that undoubtedly is at 2/1. Cue
Card was no match for the winner and I just think he might become hard to
place. I'm unconvinced he is a Grade 1 animal, especially whilst his conqueror
is around. It might be that he finds a niche up in trip because he was not
stopping up the hill but opportunities would appear limited unless he can find
the necessary improvement for the top tier 2m races. That seems unlikely. Al
Ferof was running a fair race before making a bad blunder at the top of the
hill. That cost him all chance which was a shame because it would have been
interesting to see whether he could have given the winner any sort of race. He
will be seen to better effect over further even if he still seems to lack that
little something. He is very good but I do not think he is brilliant. The X
factor he has not, something that the winner has in spades.
Champion
Hurdle
Rock On
Ruby can hardly be described as a fortunate winner of the Champion Hurdle in
that he looked well in command from some way out under a fine ride from the
excellent Noel Fehily. However, the fact that both he and Overturn (2nd), were
the leading duo throughout sits a little uncomfortably. Overturn had previously
appeared exposed at the very highest level, and it could be that he improved
for coming here fresh (a deliberate ploy). Even if he has not, the winner was a
convincing one and quite possibly underrated. There was some 10/1 lurking for a
repeat in the immediate aftermath which looked big given the
manner of success. The current 6/1 best price looks nearer the mark. I somehow
suspect the chasing idea might now be put on hold and this progressive horse is
worthy of strong consideration should he return to defend his crown next
season. The overriding impression was that the test that the Champion Hurdle
represents was absolutely ideal for him.
Hurricane
Fly, the hot favourite, was backed into 4/6 but never looked like rewarding
that faith. His billing as the 'best since Istabraq' might now seem a little
premature. He is a very good animal and will no doubt clean up many more Irish
Grade 1s before he is done, but whether he had an off day, or whether he was
found out by the Championship pace (slowly run last year) must be open to
question. I would not rule him out but neither would I be in any rush to back
him to regain his title as a 9yo in 2013.
My
immediate impression was that the other jockeys had allowed Noel Fehily and
Jason Maguire too much rope at the head of affairs. I think it is true to a
certain extent but I don't think it can be an explanation for their defeat.
They had every chance to win the race if they were good enough. In this regard,
comments put forward in the BHA Handicapper's Blog are of interest. It was
suggested that the softer ground down the back straight played into the hands
of the front runners who were able to quicken turning down the hill, leaving
those in behind trying to quicken with them on the softer going. In truth I
think it is a small point but, with both (ground and riding) taken together it
is possible that the distance of defeat might have been exaggerated. However, I
think it is very hard to argue anything other than Rock On Ruby being a worthy
winner. To my eye it was a convincing success.
Of the
rest, Overturn ran yet another splendid race in 2nd. I keep saying it, but what
a horse he would be to own. Binocular followed Hurricane Fly throughout and
never looked like getting past him, let along the ones in front. Zarkandar
fairly finished like the proverbial train close home having been caught flat
footed when the pace quickened down the hill. I was surprised to see him
positioned so far back because his two key attributes are stamina and
the ability to produce a gradual but powerful finishing kick. He was
ridden for a turn off foot and was predictably found wanting. His
effort still deserves credit considering he was affected by the Ditcheat cough,
and ran in the Betfair Hurdle whilst under its cloud. He is still only 5, has
only the 5 hurdle starts to his name, and, with another year on his back, a bit
more experience, he could be one to watch. The downside is that it would appear
a flat out gallop is an essential for this thoroughly likeable horse. Should he
get his conditions then he could be a big player in 12 months time.
I wrote
the above about how Zarkandar was ridden without the benefit of the Champion
Trainer's view. It was, therefore, pleasing to see Nicholls himself comment
"In hindsight, Zarkandar could have been
ridden closer to the pace in the Champion Hurdle but he finished strongly into
fifth, probably running a career-best, and a longer trip will suit him" in
his Betfair Blog. I would agree, however, I don't think a longer trip is
essential. I am sure that he can be fully effective at the minimum, on the proviso
that the pace is strong. And this might be the sticking point because he is
liable to be caught out in a dawdling gallop. I hope that he is given
his chance in next year's race because I believe he is capable of better than
he showed and seems sure to benefit from another year for both experience and
physical development.
And, on that subject, what a race it promises to be. Rock On
Ruby returning to defend his crown, Hurricane Fly and Binocular to regain
theirs, Zarkandar having another try, plus the absentees (Spirit Son and
Grandouet), plus some old faces returning (Peddlers Cross) and the inevitable
batch of up and comers (Cinders And Ashes et al) and it has all the
ingredients for a riveting race.
Mares'
Hurdle
After the
disappointment of Hurricane Fly, and a disaster in the XC, it was left to
Quevega to get the Mullins bandwagon rolling. She proved more than up to the
task, running out a predictably easy winner in a slowly run affair.
She was 4 lengths clear at the finish and the fact that the distances between
the next 10 in behind her were a neck, a neck, a neck, a 1/2 length, a 3/4
length, a head, a short head, a 1/2 length and a 1/2 length emphasises her
dominance. It really was a case of Quevega 1st and daylight 2nd. Provided that
Willie Mullins is able to get her back in peak form in 12 months time a 5th win
looks a certainty. She is a long way clear of the rest.
Novice
Handicap Chase
I do not
intend to review the handicaps but no reflection on the 2012 Festival would be
complete without at least a mention of Hunt Ball. This horse started the season
back on 28th November when winning off a mark of 69. He has since won another 6
races and, most astonishingly of all, was beaten off a mark of 102 on 2nd
January! The fact that he was able to run out such an impressive winner of a
Cheltenham handicap off of 142 is a remarkable story. His rating will rise to
154 but you can be quite sure that his equally likeable owner, Anthony Knott,
does not see the story finishing just yet. He is quoted as short as 20/1 for
the 2013 Gold Cup and, whilst he still has a good bit to find to trouble the
judge in such a race, he does not need to find very much at all to make his
mark in graded races this or next season. I hope he can make the jump.
Wednesday
National
Hunt Chase
Another
open looking race on paper to start the card, and another in which I relied on
paddock appearance to point me in the direction of the winner. The trick had
worked a treat with Cinder And Ashes in the Supreme the previous day and I
thought I was going to strike again with Four Commanders leading at the last.
In the end, a slight blunder cost him valuable momentum and he was to finish
3rd to reward the EW support at 12/1. In front of him were Teaforthree, the
favourite, and Harry The Viking, my long term fancy for the race. Only 10 of
the 19 to face the starter managed to complete the course, with both of the
well fancied Willie Mullins contenders notable departures. Allee Garde fell at
the 12th, bringing down stablemate Soll in the process. However, that aside,
the result looked fair and there can be little doubt that three promising
stayers came to the fore. I do like Harry The Viking and feel sure he can win a
big staying race in the future. Something like the Scottish National would look
ideal and, although a rise in the weights from 137 to 143 will make things
tougher, that should be within his compass. Any marathon on good ground and he
will be worthy of support. And the same comment applies to the 3rd Four
Commanders too. I see that the Irish National is his intended target and I
would certainly be looking to support him there should the ground be near good.
Neptune
Novices' Hurdle
After the
late injury to Fingal Bay and the defection of Boston Bob to the Albert
Bartlett Simonsig was a warm order to finally give trainer Nicky Henderson a
first winner in the race. Truth be told, there was never a moment's worry for
his backers during the race, although the same cannot be said of the bumpy ride
to Cheltenham!
I had
backed him antepost at 14/1 after a visit to Seven Barrows in January. I was
already a fan of his (admittedly favouring the Supreme) and I was pleased to
find that they held him in the highest regard too. I was, however, assured that
the Neptune was his intended target so felt compelled to invest at what looked
a sensational price. A facile win in the Morebattle Hurdle, and a growing
consensus that the Supreme was the easier race, put his target into some doubt.
In the immediate aftermath of the Kelso race it seemed inevitable that he would
run in the Supreme but it later emerged that Geraghty favoured the Neptune and
from there on in, the longer race appeared favourite.
If the
build-up had been an emotional roller-coaster, the race itself was anything
but. He travelled with all his usual zest, absolutely hacked down the hill as
everything else started to feel the pinch, was then left in front (far too
early) by the departure of Cotton Mill, but from there on was always in
complete command. Foolishly (in hindsight) at least, I had put in an in-running
lay at 2.0 to recover my stake (some were doubting his ability to stay and
battle, if required) so was cheering him home without a worry from a long way
out. He made smooth and effortless progress through the field down the back
straight and it was noticeable that as everything else was starting to be
niggled along, Barry Geraghty was still taking a pull on the winner. It was an
exceptional performance, leaving good horses trailing in his wake, in a very
fast time, and all unextended.
Whilst
the race was diminished by the absence of Fingal Bay and Boston Bob, I find it
hard to believe that the result would have been any different. It was after all
the best novice hurdling performance (162 RPR) since the brilliant but ill-fated
Monsignor (164 RPR) had won the same race back in 2000.
Some have
suggested the Champion Hurdle but I find it very hard to believe that Nicky
Henderson will waste another year over hurdles with him. He looks like his
jumping will improve for a fence (hurdles seem to get in his way) and I cannot
wait to see him try. Assuming he will adjust to the bigger obstacles, and I
think he will, he will take some stopping in the Arkle next season. He has a
potent blend of speed and stamina and one hell of an engine to go with it. His
trainer has already christened the brilliant Sprinter Sacre as the 'black
aeroplane' and did suggest that this one might be the 'grey aeroplane'. Their
free-going brilliance is certainly comparable and I can only hope that the grey
follows in the footsteps of the 'black' next season. He is already a far
superior hurdler (OR 157 for Simonsig and OR 149 for Sprinter Sacre), so he has
every chance of being something a bit special in whichever direction they
choose to go. Henderson did even suggest that he has the pace for the flat and
he'd be a tough nut to crack in the Ascot Gold Cup. Rite Of Passage could only
finish 3rd in the Neptune (OR 144) before winning the Royal Ascot showpiece so
you would think that Simonsig has the ability. However, I somehow suspect
connections will be dreaming of Cheltenham in 12 months time rather than Ascot
this summer.
The one
disappointment is how no bookmaker is prepared to offer anything bigger than
4/1 for a horse that has yet to fun over fences (Points excluded) and has yet
to run over 2m. As you can no doubt tell, I am his biggest supporter, and have
been for some time, but even I can't be tempted at that price. Hopefully
somebody will offer something a little more tempting at some stage.
It was a
performance of such dominance that it is hard to see anything in behind getting
close to him in the future. Cotton Mill was probably the paddock pick and I
would have been tempted with an EW wager at 14/1. But, by that late stage, the
money had already come and he was no bigger than his 8/1 SP. He was in the
process of running a fine race before unshipping Denis O'Regan at the 2nd last
but the winner was travelling far better on his outside at the time. Felix
Yonger proved best of the Mullins trio, not particularly surprising in itself.
Monksland was in the process of closing when hampered by Cotton Mill but
Carberry was niggling away so you fancy he would have been playing for place
money regardless. Yet again Sous Les Cieux ran a curious race, appearing
outpaced before plugging on. I am surprised that connections have persevered
with the hold up tactics as he seems to lack any change of gear. I know he
flopped when asked to make all in the Future Champions over Christmas but I
would have thought that settling him handy would have seen him finish closer.
There are no doubt a number of smart prospects lurking in behind but the winner
looks a cut above and could be very very good indeed.
RSA Chase
I could
not have got this one more wrong if I had tried. The stats were heavily against
Grands Crus, but stats are there to be broken, right? Wrong, as it happens.
Grands Crus flops in 5th, and the slow boat, poor jumper, but trends horse Bobs
Worth puts in an immaculate round of jumping to win convincingly. I
backed Grands Crus to win (in a double with Sizing Europe) but am now glad he
ran because I would have laid Bobs Worth all day long at a short price in his
absence. I could not have had him at all after some moderate jumping throughout
his fencing career. For the paddock pick I would have just sided with First
Lieutenant (Mouse Morris again to add to Four Commanders). He looked primed to
the minute and improved greatly on anything he had previously shown
over fences, probably as a result of the good ground he relishes. He travelled
very keenly through the race and I wonder whether a return to 2m5f (Neptune
winner last year) for the Ryanair might be his aim next season. I think he
stays alright but he travelled too strongly in this and the extra quarter mile
might be too much. The winner is now no bigger than 8/1 for the Gold Cup next
season but I can't see any value in taking that price because, like this
season, it might be that he arrives at Cheltenham on the back of a string of
defeats in unsuitable circumstances. This was an impressive win but I still
doubt whether he is genuine Gold Cup material. He might be entering a weak
division but there are others that I prefer at this stage. One who was no bigger
than 8/1 for this year's Gold Cup was Grands Crus. He came with the exact
opposite profile to Bobs Worth, with a string of impressive wins to his name.
Whether he failed to fire, whether he failed to stay (as some had suggested
before the race) or whatever, he must now have questions to answer. I find it
hard to believe that this was his true running given that he beat Bobs Worth in
convincing fashion in the Feltham on Boxing Day. It might be that he was suited
by that test, and it seems certain that Bobs Worth was unsuited at the very
least. He still has huge potential but it will be interesting to see where
connections go with him now.
Champion
Chase
The
Champion Chase was the easiest race to sort out of the entire week. Big Zeb was
too old and had lost his form, Finian's Rainbow was always exposed by a strong
gallop and finished weakly, Wishfull Thinking was out of form, and I'm So
Lucky, Gauvain and Realt Dubh were not good enough. That left the first two
from the Tingle Creek in December to fight out the finish once again. Wrong
again. Kauto Stone was a first fence faller, disappointing in itself but made
significantly worse by the gaping distance between the front two and Big Zeb
back in 3rd. I still think he would have had a decent chance of filling it.
I must
confess that I found it impossible to envisage defeat for Sizing Europe,
however, after burning half my fingers on Hurricane Fly the previous
day, decided against 'lumping on'. That was a good decision. I was hurt much
less financially than might have been the case but I was still absolutely
amazed at the result, and I still am in all honesty.
The final
fence fiasco (FFF) quite clearly didn't help but Finian's Rainbow was
ultimately well on top at the line and I find it difficult to accept that
Sizing Europe was an unlucky loser. I would be much happier if I thought he was
because that would at least give me some consolation that 'I was right' but was
robbed by pure rotten misfortune. I do not think I was though. The FFF did cost
Sizing Europe ground but I am not convinced it was the difference between
victory and defeat.
For
followers of my antepost advice it was a bit of a result. I said the following
on the 4th January "8/1 [about Finian's
Rainbow] might look a big price if he wins [the Victor Chandler], but it might
look pretty poor if he does not. However, if he does not win that would make
Sizing Europe look like banker material. It is hard to see Sizing Europe
getting any bigger (indeed 11/4 looks more than fair and unlikely to last long)
and Finian's Rainbow will either shorten or be a write off after the Victor
Chandler. Therefore, a dutching win bet would be the best advice. Whatever the
outcome in the Victor Chandler a strong position will be guaranteed". Did
I follow my own advice? No. Should I have done? Yes. I hope you were more
sensible.
The race was unsatisfactory, the division looks weak, and the
time is ripe for a new superstar to emerge. Finian's Rainbow will be 10 next
season, Sizing Europe 11, so it is some good fortune that Sprinter Sacre is
waiting in the wings. He might be just the standard bearer that the 2m chasers
need. The only danger I can see in any antepost lists is Sanctuaire. He is a
risky proposition but he has looked exciting in his first two starts over
fences. I will consider a little at 50/1 before he runs at Aintree depending on
the opposition.
Champion Bumper
New Year's Eve looked the real deal in the paddock and he
probably is. He came there to win the race rounding the home turn but could never
quite get there before weakening close home. He is only 4 so this was a brave
and promising effort. It will be interesting to see what John Ferguson has in
mind for him. The other two to come clear with him were the Mullins duo of
Champagne Fever and Pique Sous. The word beforehand had been that Mullins'
bumper crop wasn't up to his usual standards and both
were relatively friendless in the market. How wrong everybody was.
The winner was Champagne Fever who looked a big raw soft ground chaser in the
making which made his fantastic front running effort all the more creditable.
He has huge potential once he fills his frame and faces a fence in time. Willie
Mullins has even suggested that he might go chasing next season, missing out on
novice hurdles, because that is where his future lies. Pique Sous travelled
well but never looked like getting on terms with the winner.
Thursday
Jewson
Novices' Chase
The
Jewson was a frustrating race in that I had backed Peddlers Cross for the Arkle
and was very keen on Sir Des Champs for the RSA. In the end I wasn't madly
enthusiastic about either in this race, but for differing reasons. Peddlers
Cross had had the Arkle as his target all season and the late switch was a
concern. McCain stated that he hadn't been able to school him as thoroughly as
he would have liked as his reasoning. That is understandable but this was
definitely Plan B. Sir Des Champs looked likely to head here (strong
Gigginstown representation in the RSA) but that seemed to have changed with a
flood of money for the 3m race as a result of the injury to leading contender
Last Instalment. Mullins also appeared to have the RSA as his first choice throughout,
but, in the end, this race was his chosen destination. I am convinced that this
horse is crying out for a step up in trip and will be a much improved animal at
3m. I was, therefore, happy to leave him alone in this race, fearing that he
might find the pace hot before staying on late. Cristal Bonus was another
potentially smart young chaser who came here on the back of a win at Kempton.
The form didn't amount to much but the manner of victory was impressive.
Champion Court and Solix had strong course form to their names from the Dipper,
and For Non Stop had the rearranged Grade 1 Scilly Isles already in the bag.
The race
itself slightly fell apart at the seams with Cristal Bonus never going at all
(pushed along after one fence and found to have an abscess), Solix
disappointing and Peddlers Cross never travelling. Champion Court set the pace
and jumped well, running a fine race in defeat. However, the race was all about
one horse and that horse was Sir Des Champs.
My fear
about him getting outpaced mid race proved wide of the mark as he
travelled supremely well. He quickened smartly after the last to put the race
to bed in a matter of strides in impressive fashion. He still has to improve to
win a Gold Cup but I feel certain that he will be seen to even better effect up
in trip. He finished his races so strongly over 2m5f that it is hard to think
otherwise. He has the class and ability to travel at 2m5f pace, jumps well,
stays powerfully, he has an excellent trainer and a good man in the saddle in Davy
Russell (assuming he will choose him in the Gold Cup next season), all the
ingredients you would want in a potential Gold Cup winner. He still has a lot
to prove (has yet to run further than 2m5f for example) but he looks one of the
more likely types for glory at Cheltenham next year. His performance has hardly
gone unnoticed and prices of no bigger than 6/1 aren't hugely tempting at this
stage.
Peddlers
Cross ran a very disappointing race and was beaten from some way out. He jumped
OK, not exceptionally well but adequately, and was still being pushed along as
early as the back straight. McCain said that he is not the same horse over
fences but I'm not convinced that he just isn't the same horse full stop. He
was a favourite of mine with his tenacious never-say-die attitude but I do
wonder whether his battle with Hurricane Fly in last season's Champion Hurdle
has left its mark. He might return to his best but I will be watching him even
over hurdles for the time being. I hope he comes back as good as before.
Ryanair
Chase
This
looked to be one of the races of the Festival and so it proved with Riverside
Theatre just getting up on the line under a fine ride from Barry Geraghty. The
vanquished both deserved to win with Medermit yet again finding one (or two)
too good, and Albertas Run so brave in defeat in his bid for a Festival
four-timer.
There was
a suspicion beforehand that Cheltenham was not Riverside Theatre's track and it
could easily be argued that he confirmed that impression despite winning. He
never travelled or jumped with any fluency but I would argue that he
would benefit from a step up in trip. It would be no surprise to see him take
in the King George and Gold Cup route next season, especially as Henderson no
longer has Long Run sitting pretty in that division, and possibly has Finian's
Rainbow forced up in trip to the Ryanair by the presence of Sprinter Sacre.
Albertas
Run ran another splendid race but it is hard to see him winning again at 12
next season. Conditions do suit him well and he could pick up some place money
but you fancy (and hope) that one or two would have improved past him by then.
Medermit
took his Grade 1 record to 2741423 in this. He is forever knocking on the door
but rarely does it open for him. If he puts in a perfect round of jumping
(blunders in both the Ascot Chase and the Ryanair) then he will surely have his
day. Alan King is convinced that 3m will be his trip and it will be interesting
to see how he fares if allowed to take his chance in the Bowl at Aintree, or in
the King George next season. However, the suspicion remains that he is always
likely to find a couple too good at the very highest level.
In 4th
was Captain Chris, another favourite of mine. I backed him for the Arkle last
season at 10/1 for a very nice win, and have followed him ever since. He looked
sure to beat Medermit and giving him weight in the Haldon Gold Cup before a
final fence departure, and then ran a respectable race in 3rd in the King
George. He went completely off-track in the Argento at Cheltenham back in
January and it was pleasing to see him run I slightly more normal race here. He
still jumped right handed, markedly at times, and it is a testament to his
ability that he was able to finish as close as he did, especially since he lost
his position after a slight mistake at a crucial time. Indeed, the Racing Post
comments in running state "plenty to do 3 out". He was only beaten 6
lengths and I feel sure that there is still better to come from him. Whether he
will ever show his full potential is another question altogether because he
looks a horse lacking in confidence to me. If Hobbs can get him to the King
George happy and in peak form then I am sure he will make odds of 16/1 look
very silly indeed. He has more ability than most and can win a big one if
everything clicks into place.
World
Hurdle
How
foolish I was. All season I had taken the simple 'lump on' approach with regard
to Big Buck's and it had paid dividends. But not this time. In Oscar Whisky and
Thousand Stars he was facing two speedy horses with Grade 1 form at the minimum
trip. Stamina was a question mark for both but with no obvious pace angle I was
worried that a slow pace and sprint finish might play into their hands against
the great champion. With that in mind, I was tempted into backing both EW with
Ladbrokes who were offering 1/2 the odds a place. That appeared an excellent
offer, and it would have been had I managed to get one horse in the places! My
other concern was the apparent poor form of the Nicholls stable with Rock On
Ruby (not in the main yard) the only winner to emerge, and plenty of others
running very poorly indeed.
Cross
Kennon and Five Dream helped set a decent clip which immediately made Big
Buck's a near certainty. The only question to answer was whether he was
affected by the 'Ditcheat plague'. He was not. Ruby took it up leaving the back
straight to ensure no sprint finish materialised with all
the pretenders lined up to challenge in behind. But none proved up to
the task. Oscar Whisky failed to stay, Thousand Stars travelled far too keenly
and paid the price, and Voler La Vedette swooped late but to no avail. Whatever
jockeys try, whatever horses he faces, the result is always the same. He is an
absolute machine.
You can
hardly describe him as impressive in victory but yet again it appeared that
there were gears to spare, pricking his ears before and after the last as
concentration flicked briefly from what was behind him to what was in front,
and back again. It is very rare for a horse to treat rivals of this quality
with such disdain and to do it time and time again.
Superlatives
get used frequently, and loosely, but there can be no doubt that this
horse is one of the greats. He is the greatest staying hurdler there has been,
and one of the greatest horses we will ever see. He has already equalled Sir
Ken's 16 race winning streak and it looks a formality that he will add a 17th
to his tally with a 4th Liverpool Hurdle next month. Don't take him on,
just back him, or if the short price is a deterrent, just watch this great
horse strut his stuff. You won't see another like him. He is truly magnificent.
Friday
Triumph
Hurdle
This was
a race that did not excite me greatly beforehand and does not excite me greatly
afterwards either. They had all been beating each other throughout the season
with no clear outstanding candidate emerging. In the end, the race itself
produced exactly the same result with Countrywide Flame beating Hisabaat by 3
lengths, who had beaten Countrywide Flame by 3 lengths in the Spring Juvenile
at Leopardstown. Shadow Catcher who finished 2nd that day was back in 12th in
this. Grumeti had beaten Dodging Bullets an easy length and half in the
Dovecote but was only a head in front here. Baby Mix had comfortably beaten
Sadler's Risk in the Adonis but the form was reversed here. The list goes on.
In short the form looked a muddle before the race and it looks more of a muddle
afterwards. The one that had caught my eye before the race was Dodging
Bullets and he did so again in the race. He travelled ominously well and looked
like the winner at one stage before tiring late on. This was only his second
hurdles start and he remains open to significant improvement. However, it
is hard to think that any of these will have the same impact in open company as
last year's renewal. My instinct is to draw a line through the lot in terms of
genuine Grade 1 contenders, much like the RSA last season.
Albert
Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
The
potato race was the chosen destination for Irish hotpot Boston Bob but in the
end it was the relatively unconsidered but unbeaten (in hurdles) Scottish
raider Brindisi Breeze who took home the prize. He had been labelled as a soft
ground plodder by many, myself included, but he proved here that he is nothing
of the sort. He sat handy, took it up a fair way out and kept on finding. Where
he goes next is a matter of some debate. I gather from others that he is not
the biggest (regrettably I did not see him in the paddock) which would cast a
small question mark over him as a potential chaser. He is already a Point
winner so it is possible that such fears have been overstated. However, the
other alternative is the World Hurdle where the phenomenon that is Big Buck's
stands in his way. What is certain is that he deserves far more respect than he
was afforded in most quarters this year wherever he ends up. I would probably
lean towards the chasing option because his running style will suit Big Buck's
perfectly. Big Buck's has been forced to make his own running from some way out
in the past two World Hurdles which has not been ideal. As we have seen in the
past (most notably at Aintree last year) he is far more impressive when another
horse brings him clear of the pack. I fear that Brindisi Breeze would perform
that role to perfection.
My
concern with the form is that I find it difficult to accept that Boston Bob is
as slow as he looked here. I had backed him at 7/2 a week or so before the race
and was convinced that he was a 6/4 shot if he turned up. In the end he was
backed into an SP of 6/5, too short, but an indication of the regard in which
he is held. It is not the fact that he was beaten that is a concern but the
manner in which he was beaten. For a horse for whom the Neptune was under
strong consideration, he displayed a worrying lack of pace throughout the
contest, never really travelling with any great fluency. He made up his ground
from the rear despite not having the best of runs to challenge at the last,
slightly missed it, and was never going to get on top from there on in. I am
not saying that he definitely is better than this, but I would be
surprised if he isn't. It might be that he needs softer ground to show his best
(and therefore looked outpaced on good) but I just wonder whether he was a
little below par. Some have suggested that he didn't look fantastic in the
paddock (again I didn't see him myself) which may be one answer. It seems strange
that a horse that had supposedly worked so well with the likes of Hurricane Fly
and Quevega, and was strongly considered for the 2m5f Neptune, was made to look
a bit slow by proper stayers in a 3m contest such as this. However, it is
important not to detract from the winner, who was ultimately well on top at the
line, but I would not be dismissing Boston Bob just yet either.
Gold Cup
I had
this one down as a two horse race for a long time with Long Run and Kauto Star
seemingly comfortably clear of the pack. After the late injury scare with Kauto
Star, which could hardly have come at a worse time, and Long Run being only
workmanlike in his prep (and having a hard enough race as a result) there was a
sense that a shock might be on the cards. I had no opinion strong enough to
justify a bet but equally I was sufficiently deterred not to be piling into the
favourite and was instead happy to let my post King George bet (optimistically)
ride on Kauto Star.
The very
fact that Kauto Star was there to take his chance was probably the highlight of
the race. He was applauded into the pre-parade, he was cheered into the
paddock, clapped around the paddock, cheered onto the course and down to the
start. Everywhere he went the vocal praise from his adoring public followed.
But the race did not go to plan. I, like many, felt predominantly a crushing
sense of anti-climax. Kauto Star was sensibly pulled up early by Ruby Walsh
which robbed the race of its star attraction and I must confess to spending
longer watching Kauto Star canter steadily back to the horsewalk than watching
the rest of the race unfold. This sense of disappointment was only increased
post race when I am sure I was not alone in thinking 'if only'. If Kauto Star
had been able to reproduce his Betfair or King George form a 3rd Gold Cup would
have been his. If.
As the
race developed, Long Run appeared to be moving as well as anything but The
Giant Bolster and Time For Rupert still being at the head of affairs turning
down the hill was a strange site to behold. It certainly didn't quite evoke
memories of the fantastic sight of Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander
storming down the hill together with Long Run in hot pursuit just 12 months
ago. Nevertheless, there they were and there The Giant Bolster would stay.
Time For Rupert dropped away and Long Run looked to have the race at his mercy
once more. However, clinging on to their coat tails under an inspired AP McCoy
was the rather uninspiring Synchronised. He was outpaced throughout but kept on
fighting and kept on finding for McCoy's urgings. I commented that he would win
coming down the hill as he was still in touch and was sure to come back up it
strongest of all, and so it proved. Long Run did not storm away as he had done
last year, The Giant Bolster kept on but a slow jump at the last opened the
door for Synchronised who surged up the hill to win going away.
It is
hard to argue that it was a vintage renewal with horses all over the place to
hold the form down. However, if we were not going to be treated to a vintage
renewal to match those of previous years then I am delighted that AP McCoy,
Jonjo O'Neill and JP McManus were treated to Gold Cup glory. It would be
impossible to name a jockey, a trainer and, in particular, an owner who deserve
it more. The fact that the three could do it together (as they had with Don't
Push It in the Grand National) was a marvellous result.
There can
be little doubt that the era of great staying chasers is drawing to a close,
and might even be at an end should Kauto Star not reappear next season, but
more of that later. In many ways, the result merely emphasised just how good
the likes of Kauto Star and Denman have been. It has become the norm for the
Gold Cup winner to record a rating in excess of 180 in victory but this is not
'the norm', and nor should it be treated as such. These are exceptional horses
that we have enjoyed over the past few years and a return to normality was an
inevitability. Their like do not come around very often and the fact that we have
been blessed with two (possibly more) of them at once is a special thing. We
cannot expect to have another ready to take their place when they bow out.
It is
hard to see Synchronised as a dual Gold Cup winner, especially as he does not
have age on his side (will be 10 next year). The questions for next year's Gold
Cup appear to be will Long Run recapture his form at 8? Can The Giant Bolster
improve again? Or will the novices led by Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth be the
key contenders? The market has the answer to the last question answered as an
emphatic yes already with Sir Des Champs the general 6/1 favourite and Bobs
Worth next best at 8/1. I am inclined to agree and my personal preference would
be the former who looks a touch classier and promises to stay well, though that
is a question he still has to answer definitively. As a result, there appears
little value in his price.
Next
season looks an open renewal at this stage and it is quite possible that we are
entering a lull in the staying chase division. After the efforts of Denman and
Kauto Star, two legends of the game, this is hardly surprising. It might be
that something emerges from the pack to stake their claim but I wouldn't count
on it. The law of averages says we are due a period of moderate winners. I do
not begrudge him his success (in fact quite the opposite) but Synchronised is
possibly the first name on that list. There may be at least a couple more to
follow.
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