An Eclipse Evaluation

There can be little doubt that the absence of So You Think from the Coral Eclipse detracted from the race. He set the bar to which the others would need to rise. However, whether you are inclined to believe the injury story or whether you look upon his late withdrawal with a degree of cynicism, let that not detract from the race. It may not have been the best 10f field ever assembled but it was a good contest nevertheless. It was a great spectacle up the home straight and I am in little doubt that the winner is a very good horse indeed. See the replay here.

I said before the race that Nathaniel's misfortune at Ascot in the Champion Stakes had been overlooked in the hysteria surrounding Farhh's unlucky run at Royal Ascot. Here, again, was the recency bias in evidence. It is all too easy to remember what happened 2 weeks ago, and all too easy to forget what happened 9 months ago. His profile had been that of a progressive horse, and that impression was confirmed with an authoritative success in the King George last July. The form of that race needs treating with caution given the farcically slow early pace but it did indicate that Nathaniel was a force to be reckoned with in the top middle distance races. For some reason he appears to have been labelled as 'just a stayer' despite there being plenty of evidence to the contrary. That King George victory, where he quickened well off the slow pace to run out a convincing winner, being one example. He then missed the Arc on account of the ground being too quick and returned to Ascot for his first try at 10f. The field for the Champion Stakes was greater in quality, quantity and depth than the Eclipse and yet he was a well supported 5/1 2nd favourite. In the end, nothing went his way and he finished only 5th but that was by no means a fair reflection of his ability. He had been drawn wide, was forced to use up energy to get across to lead, was then taken on for the lead by Ransome Note, before getting swamped, squeezed for room on the rail and not given a hard time once his chance had gone. I saw a run full of promise and it did nothing to dissuade me from my opinion that he was a very good horse. I know many, understandably I suppose, felt it was confirmation that he was not up to the highest level over 10f but I think that was to make too harsh an assessment on the form. I doubt he was good enough to win but, in my mind, he was undoubtedly a good deal better than the bare form and, given the strength of the race (Cirrus Des Aigles, So You Think, Snow Fairy and Midday were the four ahead of him), that was a most creditable effort.

He had missed his intended prep race for the Eclipse in the Brigadier Gerard after a dirty scope which raised questions as to how ready he would be for his first run back. Trainer John Gosden had said that he was fit but likely to benefit from the run and that was exactly the visual impression I got from the paddock. He looked fit, let there be no doubt about it, but he also looked as if there was a little improvement to come. I have read plenty on the matter which would suggest that fitness is a black and white issue, fit or unfit, when it is palpably grey.

The race went pretty much to plan. City Style, the Godolphin pacemaker, set a good tempo which he was able to sit behind. When City Style faded entering the straight, Nathaniel was left in front over 3f from home. By this stage Monterosso was already struggling and it was Cityscape and Farhh who looked the main dangers. When I say pretty much to plan I mean that I am sure Buick would have preferred a lead for another furlong. However, he did not have that luxury and it was not needed either. He first saw off the challenge of Cityscape, who looked a blatant non-stayer, and then Farhh, who looked briefly like he might go past him. However, inside the final furlong it was Nathaniel who was well on top. Whether he was idling in front or whether Farhh weakened a little inside the final furlong I do not know but it appeared as if Nathaniel pulled out a little more when Frankie and Farhh ranged up alongside. I would be inclined to go with the former judging by the relative proximity of Twice Over. It is a small point but suggests that there was a little more left in the tank and that a return to 12f may see him to even better effect as you might expect. If the King George does not come too soon he will hold outstanding claims even if the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Sea Moon take their chances. 

Farhh was an obvious eyecatcher at Ascot when getting no run in 3rd behind So You Think in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes. I know some felt he would have won that day but I did not agree. I thought he reaffirmed the impression that he had created at Ascot here, that he is clearly a Group 1 performer, going down all guns blazing. Where the opportunities will be for him now is another matter. His dam is stoutly bred and is a Group 1 winner over 12f but his sire, Pivotal, has sired 12 Group 1 winners and only two (both fillies) have won Group 1s at 10f+. If his pedigree is a mixed bag, the evidence of this race is that 10f is likely to be his maximum. It was notable how in the last 1/2f or so Nathaniel was comfortably on top. With Frankel set to step up in trip for the International and Champion Stakes it might be that his opportunities lie abroad. 

Twice Over ran another fine race and is a credit to his connections. He showed that he is still worth his place in similar contests. He was slightly stuck on the rail behind Nathaniel when Cityscape weakened on his outside and might have been that bit closer had he had a clean run. However, it made no difference to his finishing position. Where he goes from here remains to be seen because it looks as if Frankel will be heading to the Juddmonte International, a race which he won last year and finished 2nd in the year before. Sir Henry saddled both he and Midday for Prince Khalid Abdulla 12 months ago so it is perfectly plausible that he might take his chance again against the mighty Frankel. 

Cityscape ran a fine race before his stamina gave and is well worth his chance back in 8f Group 1s, especially when the aforementioned Frankel (in the same ownership) steps up to 10f. He travelled well to look a real threat early in the straight but weakened markedly inside the final two furlongs. I would say he just about stays 9f but not a yard more. Races like the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions' Day must be on his agenda.

Crackerjack King is not the most fluent of movers. I would describe him as scratchy or scrabbly, neither complimentary. Either way, a firmer surface is likely to suit but he weakened out of it a little disappointingly I thought. I read that connections are looking at the Arlington Million which would appear sensible because I doubt he is up to winning a Group 1 on these shores on this evidence.

Bonfire did nothing but bang another big nail in the coffin of the 3yos. So far, only Camelot has escaped their mediocrity at the top level. You would like to think that at least a couple may emerge from the pack for the back end races but I think Bonfire is one to cross off the list. There are plenty of promising types who still have the potential to come to the rescue. He pulled far too hard, he has a dodgy temperament and he has no physical scope to progress. He has (or had) a tall reputation, now severely dented for obvious reasons, but I suspect he may continue to be overbet. He looks well worth opposing to me wherever he goes.

Sri Putra was quite worked up in the preliminaries and did not run his usual race. He was beaten 19 lengths into 7th. It was May 2010 and 15 runs ago when he was last beaten further. Those previous 14 runs have included 8 Group 1 races too. He will not be winning at this level but it is entirely possible that he will run into the money again at a huge price as he has done before.

Monterosso looked as if he would come on for the run but this was still a very poor effort. He was struggling fully 4f from home and has question marks to answer now. 

City Style looked poor in his coat and forced the pace supposedly for the benefit if his stablemates Farhh and Monterosso. However, I suspect that he helped out Nathaniel at least as much and probably more.

Conclusions: For whatever reason (possibly the suspect King George form?) I think Nathaniel is underrated and he may well continue to be so even after this terrific performance. I expect him to improve and to take a leading hand in all of the top middle distance races later in the season. I think he is very good. The prospect of him renewing rivalries with Frankel (beaten 1/2 length on debut) is something to look forward to. Both Gosden and Buick hinted that a clash could happen (either at York or on Champions' Day) and the Rothschilds seem happy to take up a challenge. We need horses good enough and connections brave enough to take Frankel on and Nathaniel and his team fit the bill nicely. He will not beat Frankel but he is as good as any other potential challenger.