Going For Gold

It is rare that an opportunity arises for a bet on Eventing and even rarer still that I think it might be a good idea to take up the offer. As it's the London Olympics and as the bookies have deigned to price up a markets it seems like an opportunity too unique to miss.

For a brief introduction to the sport of Eventing - Article - and to the British team - Article

Greenwich

It is worth bearing in mind that the Olympic competition in Greenwich Park will be far removed from what many combinations are used to. The terrain is hilly, the cross country course twisty and the atmosphere more intense than any will have experienced before. It is, therefore, sensible to have in mind what might be called the 'Greenwich Factor', that ability to handle the unique demands that this competition represents, when analysing what might happen. However, it is also important that too much is not made of it. It is likely that previous form will stand up in most cases, even if some will be better able to handle the unusual characteristics of the venue and the competition. Who is best prepared or best able to handle Greenwich is uncertain. I recently read an article in which Zara Phillips commented that her ride High Kingdom was suited to the course because he was small and manoeuvrable. In that same article Mary King said that her ride Imperial Cavalier was suited to the course because he was a big and powerful. In other words, a 'Greenwich Horse' is whatever the rider wants it to be, there is no pre-set ideal. However, regardless of physique, I think there is little doubt that rideability will be crucial. Valuable time will be wasted if a horse requires too much setting up and balancing for fences and tight corners.

Germany - 5/2

The German team are favourites on the back of a convincing success at the European Championships at  Luhmühlen last year. They are traditionally strong in the dressage phase but have increasingly become a force to be reckoned with throughout the competition. You can expect them to be leading heading into the jumping phases, the two questions are; by how far and can they maintain their lead? I think the answers are; probably quite a long way and yes.

• Michael Jung and Sam are the reigning World and European Champions and he is a strong favourite to be the first rider in history to hold all three major titles at the same time. Sam is strong in the dressage phase, has never had a XC jumping fault, is fast against the clock and has become an assured show jumper. 
• Sandra Auffarth and Opgun Louvo took the individual silver medal at the Europeans last year and their form since has been strong. Another bold showing likely.
• Ingrid Klimke is another who is likely to excel in the dressage on Butts Abraxxas. However, her jumping record is slightly chequered to say the least. Their XC record has the odd blip but it is the SJ that has proven their Achilles heal, typically having at least one fence down and often more, including when six fell at the Europeans last year to drop Ingrid out of individual medal contention. If things were to fall into place a brilliant result is by no means out of the question. 
• King Artus, ridden by Dirk Schrade, was 4th at the Europeans. Their dressage record is very solid but less exceptional than the first three riders named. However, their jumping record, both across the country and in the SJ, has been consistently good. 
• The final German rider is Peter Thomsen on Barny. Their jumping record is very strong indeed but their dressage scores are the weakest of the German team but still much better than the majority.

Conclusion: Reigning European and Olympic Champions and a strong chance of adding another Olympic Gold to their haul. In Michael Jung, Sandra Auffarth, Ingrid Klimke and Dirk Schrade they have four riders with realistic individual medal ambitions. Only three scores count leaving them with room for error, and Peter Thomsen is likely to provide very solid back up with a good score should the better dressage combinations fall by the wayside in the jumping phases.

Great Britain - 11/4

Great Britain has a fantastic record in Eventing and that success is expected to continue at the London Olympics. The British team boasts a wealth of experience in the shape of William Fox-Pitt, Mary King and Tina Cook, who have all participated in previous Olympics, and Zara Phillips and Nicola Wilson who both have considerable previous Championship experience. The British team did suffer the loss of Piggy French with both her rides, Jakata and Topper W, picking up late injuries. In particular, the latter named, winner of the Olympic Test Event at Greenwich last July, would have added invaluable course experience to the Team. 

• William Fox-Pitt had an embarrassment of riches to choose from but injuries to Cool Mountain and Olso limited his options. He rides Lionheart, a relatively inexperienced 10yo, but a horse who William describes as "made for Greenwich". His dressage has been consistently good but has yet to challenge the type of scores that the German Team can be expected to post. However, his scores are improving all the time and a new personal best is far from impossible. His career to date has been marked by a fabulous record in the SJ, something which may well be of added significance with two rounds.
• Mary King is the veteran of five previous Olympic Games and searches for that elusive Gold medal on Imperial Cavalier. They have posted dressage scores in the 30s before but not consistently. In the jumping phases they have been strong, bar a fall at the Europeans last year.
• Tina Cook rides Miners Frolic, who very nearly lost his life after a severe bout of colic just a year ago. They won team and individual Bronze medals at the Beijing Olympics and team and individual Gold at the Europeans in 2009 but have suffered mixed fortunes since. Their dressage has been consistent in the mid to low 40s, they are solid XC but the SJ has been a little mixed, including when three fell at Bramham earlier this year.
• Zara Phillips will attract much of the attention but she is well capable of handling the pressure as she has shown in the past. She rides High Kingdom, another relatively inexperienced horse, but one who is well balanced and rideable which should suit Greenwich. Their dressage is improving but remains a notch or two below what the Germans will be scoring .
• Nicola Wilson replaced Piggy French on the team and, riding Opposition Buzz, will resume her pathfinder role from recent Championships. Their dressage is the weakest phase but is going in the right direction but they are very reliable XC and good in the SJ.

Conclusion: Britain brings a strong team to these Championships seeking another Olympic medal. Everyone will want it to be Gold but I fear that Silver or Bronze is the best that we can realistically hope for. All horses will need to perform significant career bests in the dressage phase, jump double clears and hope for errors from the German team to win the Gold medal. That is not completely out of the question because the Germans have capitulated in dramatic style in the past.

New Zealand - 7/1

New Zealand produced a fine performance at the Kentucky World Equestrian Games in 2010 where they won team Bronze and Andrew Nicholson individual Bronze. Arguably they travel to London with a stronger team and they must not be underestimated.

• Andrew Nicholson is the man in form having posted a 1-2 at Barbury last month. He leaves Avebury in his stable in favour of his WEG Bronze medallist, Nereo. He is consistently good across all three phases and, in particular, his prowess in the SJ will serve him well in the individual competition.
• Mark Todd is something of an Eventing legend, winning back to back individual Olympic Golds on the mighty but diminutive Charisma. He retired from the sport but his subsequent return has seen him back as good as ever, winning Badminton for a 4th time in 2011 on Land Vision. That horse is injured so Mark rides the inexperienced 10yo, Campino. It is a big ask for the horse and maybe comes a year too soon but never discount the master and a bold showing is a distinct possibility.
• Caroline Powell and Lenamore return to the New Zealand team after the horse's 'retirement' from Championship selection. The 2010 Burghley Winner is now 19 years of age but remains as enthusiastic as ever. His dressage is solid, and could be very good if he keeps his cool, but he excels in the jumping phases. 
• Jonathan Paget and Clifton Promise bring solid 4* experience to the team. It is doubtful whether they quite have enough for individual honours but a solid team score can be expected.
• Jonelle Richards rides Flintstar. Their form is not the strongest in the competition and the New Zealanders will hope to post three superior scores.

Conclusion: The New Zealand team have four very solid riders, with Jonelle Richards the weak link. Andrew Nicholson has a good chance at an individual medal once again and, if two of the others put their best foot forward, then a team medal is theirs for the taking. 

Australia - 8/1

The Australian team is headed by the husband-wife duo of Clayton and Lucinda Fredericks. They have done well in past Olympic Games, winning team Gold in 1992, 1996 and 2000. 

• Bendigo III is the mount of Clayton Fredericks. They are one of few combinations that could challenge the Germans in the dressage phase. The SJ would perhaps be their weakest phase but they have definite individual medal prospects.
• Lucinda Fredericks rides Flying Finish who finished 2nd at Luhmühlen on their 4* debut. Their dressage has been strong throughout and so has their jumping record. The concern would be if the XC optimum time was tight. 
• Christopher Burton and Holstein Park Leilani showed exceptional form in Australia before moving to be based in Britain with the Olympics in mind. Since then, their record has been a little patchy with a unseat at Burghley and a disappointing SJ round at Pau last year. The two SJ rounds would be a concern as the mare also had a poor SJ record in Australia before Christopher took the ride.
• Those same comments apply to Sam Griffiths and Happy Times. Their last six FEI SJ rounds have yielded 12, 8, 12, 12, 12, 16. That has to be a major concern, but a 4th place at Badminton in 2011 show that they are well up to this level if the dreaded coloured poles do not start to fall.
• Andrew Hoy is an Australian team stalwart and rides the inexperienced Rutherglen. He is another who finds the SJ phase difficult but is capable of posting a good dressage score.

Conclusion: The Fredericks aside, the Aussie team looks to be at the mercy of the final phase with three out of five team members have poor recent records in the SJ. With doubts about Flying Finish's ability to make the time it would appear that their medal prospects could be vulnerable. 

USA - 10/1

The US team is coached by Captain Mark Phillips, father of Zara. In that respect he must have mixed emotions but I am sure he would settle for a victory for either party. He stands down from his position after the Games and no doubt he will want to end on a high.

• Boyd Martin and Otis Barbotiere fall into the solid category. Decent if unspectacular dressage and a good jumping record but lack that little extra to contend for Individual honours.
• The same comments apply to Karen O'Connor and Mr Medicott, previously a member of the German team when ridden by Frank Ostholt. 
• Tiana Coudray and Ringwood Magister have a less reliable record across country. They posted some dressage scores in the 30s in America but, since moving to the UK, have not got near that level. 
• William Coleman rides Twizzel. They have good form in America, with the occasional blip, but have yet to show the scores necessary for individual honours.
• Mystery Whisper is a new ride for Phillip Dutton this season but they already have three 3* wins in America together. Their run at Barbury recently suggests that they might still be behind the very best but Dutton is very experienced and well capable of challenging on the big occasion. 

Conclusion: The USA team looks to be a case of solid but unspectacular. It would be a surprise if they were able to challenge for the team Gold medal or individual medals but they have five solid riders who look sure to post good scores. 

Canada - 20/1

The surprise package at the 2010 World Equestrian Games, taking home the team Silver medal. However, it is very hard to make a convincing case for them to replicate their success here. 

France - 20/1

Team Gold medallists back in 2004 but less of a force now. They have 2008 Badminton winner Nicolas Touzaint and Hildago De L'Ile to spearhead their team. A team medal looks to be beyond them.

Holland - 40/1

Sweden - 40/1

Ireland - 50/1

Belgium - 66/1

Brazil - 125/1

Japan - 150/1

Conclusion

Much as I, and everyone else, would love to see a British triumph, it is very hard indeed to see past the German team. They have great strength in depth giving them room for error should it be required. Their strength in the first phase, which no other team comes close to matching, will likely give them a significant lead upon which they can build. The British are arguably next best but their price of 11/4 is far too short considering that the German team (5/2) is much stronger. How on earth the two can be joint favourites in places is beyond me. Perhaps the home advantage, perhaps the 'Greenwich Factor', perhaps something else, but, whatever the reason, they look much too short to me. New Zealand (7/1), Australia (8/1) and the USA (10/1) fill the second tier. Preference is for the former who look solid and capable of posting a very competitive score if things were to fall into place. In the shape of Nereo and Lenamore they have two proven top level performers likely to be competitive in the individual standings. If Mark Todd can conjure a career best from Campino then they could well challenge Britain for Silver. The advantage that the British have is they have five strong combinations where as Jonelle Richards is a weaker link for the Kiwis 5th rider. Australia have too many poor jumpers for them to be a safe proposition for a team medal and the USA lack a standout combination or two to propel them up the table.

Whatever may happen it is impossible to escape the conclusion that Germany are outstanding value at 5/2 to retain their Olympic Crown. I am fairly confident that we are into maximum bet territory.

5pts Win Germany Eventing Olympic Team Gold at 5/2 with Various

King George At Ascot

3.20 Summer Mile (1m) Group 2

Carlton House is the clear stand out performer here but he still has questions to answer; he has not faced 8f or soft(ish) ground since his Maiden days. Nevertheless, he us understandably a short priced favourite (4/5 best price) as he brings top tier Group 1 form to the table, something none of the others can boast in their recent form. He quickened smartly in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes last time suggesting that another drop in trip might be in his favour, especially as he has travelled keenly on both occasions this season over 10f. He should win but Questioning at 8/1 makes EW appeal. I backed him in the Cambridgeshire off of 99 last season when he got absolutely no run at all and he is now rated 114. Typical. This season, he has twice chased home proven mudlark Penitent in very soft ground and beat an admittedly below par Twice Over in the Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket in between. He appeared not to quite get home at Chester last time over 10f but has had a nice break since. His proven ability to handle softer ground and stay more than this 8f will stand him in good stead. 

1pt EW Questioning at 8/1 with Boylesports

4.35 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (1m4f) Group 1

This year's King George could hardly be better, featuring winners of the Arc, the King George, the Eclipse, the Breeders' Cup Turf, the Coronation Cup, the St Leger, the Melbourne Cup, the Hong Kong Vase, the Prix Du Jockey Club, the Grosser Preis Von Baden, the Grosser Preis Von Berlin, the Japanese Derby and so on. 10 horses who, together, have won 14 Group 1 races, won in 9 different countries and earned £14,177,127 in prize money. A brilliant race in prospect.

Nathaniel emerged victorious in a scrappy and unsatisfactory renewal last year. He had St Nicholas Abbey back in 3rd that day but it would be folly to read too much into the form. In two starts since Nathaniel has confirmed himself a colt of the highest calibre with a decent performance in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in far from ideal conditions and a convincing win in the Eclipse at Sandown two weeks ago. He also has another impressive course and distance win to his name in the King Edward VII at the Royal Meeting in 2011. His credentials are rock solid with conditions likely to be perfectly in his favour too. The one question mark is whether he is over his race in the Eclipse. If he is then he will take the beating and is my idea of the most likely winner. I have backed him accordingly at 3/1. 

Sea Moon started favourite for the St Leger after romping home in the Great Voltigeur on good to soft ground but could only finish 3rd after suffering a troubled passage. The ground was fast when he finished 3rd behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Breeders' Cup Turf but he was back with a bang in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, a race which had looked a deep renewal beforehand. He travelled and quickened well to stretch clear for a convincing success. I doubt he needs to find much improvement, if any, to take this and he has a strong chance.

St Nicholas Abbey was the antepost favourite but has now been usurped at the head of the market, and rightly so in my opinion. Arguably he is seen to better effect going left handed (Timeform ratings of 130/126/127/126/126 left handed and 114+/124/118/120/99 right handed at 4 and 5 years). That could be a red herring of sorts in that there can be little doubt that his major targets (perhaps with the exception of this race 12 months ago) have all been left handed. Nevertheless, it is something to consider. Moreover, his best performances have come on a sound surface, something that he will not get on Saturday, and something that both Nathaniel and Sea Moon, his major market rivals, have both shown a liking for.

Dunaden was a fast finishing 2nd in the Hardwicke behind Sea Moon after suffering trouble in running but I find it hard to believe that he would have beaten the winner, for all that he would have been closer. He is the type who could easily go close if things fall his way but I would expect Sea Moon to confirm the form regardless.

Danedream was a hugely impressive winner of the Arc last year and it may, therefore, seem surprising that she is available at 10/1. That is a reflection of both the strength of this race and the fact that she has yet to show anything like the same form in 3 subsequent starts. She took her time to show her best last season (24th July when winning her first Group 1 by 5 lengths) and if the same is true this time around she has to be a major threat.

Deep Brillante won the Japanese Derby on his last start and is the only 3yo in the field. He adds a great deal of interest, being something of an unknown quantity, but that also makes his chance difficult to determine. I have read that he can be keen and the ground would be another question mark.

Reliable Man won the French Derby last season but has been largely disappointing since. He ran with some promise at Ascot behind So You Think but it is hard to think he is good enough to win a race as strong as this.

Brown Panther was 2nd in the St Leger last year with Sea Moon back in 3rd. He was very poor at Chester on his seasonal reappearance but back to form (to a certain extent anyway) when winning a Listed race at Pontefract. Much more required to win this.

Masked Marvel won the St Leger, ahead of both Sea Moon and Brown Panther, but has been disappointing since. He, understandably, flopped in the Arc and has had the ground and track as excuses this season. Once again, the ground will not be in his favour.

Robin Hood is the Ballydoyle pacemaker for St Nicholas Abbey.

Conclusion: So long as he is over his Eclipse exertions I fancy Nathaniel to once again confirm himself as a horse of the highest calibre. Everything apart from the shorter than ideal break is in his favour. Sea Moon, who is progressive, rates the main danger with ground and track question marks for St Nicholas Abbey. Danedream has a big chance if she can recapture her Arc form but has not looked the same horse this season.

2pts Win Nathaniel at 3/1 with Paddy Power (Antepost)

Also going to throw some double arrows:

1pt EW Questioning at 8/1 and Nathaniel at 11/4 with Stan James

1pt EW Carlton House at 4/5 and Sea Moon at 3/1 with Paddy Power

An Eclipse Evaluation

There can be little doubt that the absence of So You Think from the Coral Eclipse detracted from the race. He set the bar to which the others would need to rise. However, whether you are inclined to believe the injury story or whether you look upon his late withdrawal with a degree of cynicism, let that not detract from the race. It may not have been the best 10f field ever assembled but it was a good contest nevertheless. It was a great spectacle up the home straight and I am in little doubt that the winner is a very good horse indeed. See the replay here.

I said before the race that Nathaniel's misfortune at Ascot in the Champion Stakes had been overlooked in the hysteria surrounding Farhh's unlucky run at Royal Ascot. Here, again, was the recency bias in evidence. It is all too easy to remember what happened 2 weeks ago, and all too easy to forget what happened 9 months ago. His profile had been that of a progressive horse, and that impression was confirmed with an authoritative success in the King George last July. The form of that race needs treating with caution given the farcically slow early pace but it did indicate that Nathaniel was a force to be reckoned with in the top middle distance races. For some reason he appears to have been labelled as 'just a stayer' despite there being plenty of evidence to the contrary. That King George victory, where he quickened well off the slow pace to run out a convincing winner, being one example. He then missed the Arc on account of the ground being too quick and returned to Ascot for his first try at 10f. The field for the Champion Stakes was greater in quality, quantity and depth than the Eclipse and yet he was a well supported 5/1 2nd favourite. In the end, nothing went his way and he finished only 5th but that was by no means a fair reflection of his ability. He had been drawn wide, was forced to use up energy to get across to lead, was then taken on for the lead by Ransome Note, before getting swamped, squeezed for room on the rail and not given a hard time once his chance had gone. I saw a run full of promise and it did nothing to dissuade me from my opinion that he was a very good horse. I know many, understandably I suppose, felt it was confirmation that he was not up to the highest level over 10f but I think that was to make too harsh an assessment on the form. I doubt he was good enough to win but, in my mind, he was undoubtedly a good deal better than the bare form and, given the strength of the race (Cirrus Des Aigles, So You Think, Snow Fairy and Midday were the four ahead of him), that was a most creditable effort.

He had missed his intended prep race for the Eclipse in the Brigadier Gerard after a dirty scope which raised questions as to how ready he would be for his first run back. Trainer John Gosden had said that he was fit but likely to benefit from the run and that was exactly the visual impression I got from the paddock. He looked fit, let there be no doubt about it, but he also looked as if there was a little improvement to come. I have read plenty on the matter which would suggest that fitness is a black and white issue, fit or unfit, when it is palpably grey.

The race went pretty much to plan. City Style, the Godolphin pacemaker, set a good tempo which he was able to sit behind. When City Style faded entering the straight, Nathaniel was left in front over 3f from home. By this stage Monterosso was already struggling and it was Cityscape and Farhh who looked the main dangers. When I say pretty much to plan I mean that I am sure Buick would have preferred a lead for another furlong. However, he did not have that luxury and it was not needed either. He first saw off the challenge of Cityscape, who looked a blatant non-stayer, and then Farhh, who looked briefly like he might go past him. However, inside the final furlong it was Nathaniel who was well on top. Whether he was idling in front or whether Farhh weakened a little inside the final furlong I do not know but it appeared as if Nathaniel pulled out a little more when Frankie and Farhh ranged up alongside. I would be inclined to go with the former judging by the relative proximity of Twice Over. It is a small point but suggests that there was a little more left in the tank and that a return to 12f may see him to even better effect as you might expect. If the King George does not come too soon he will hold outstanding claims even if the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Sea Moon take their chances. 

Farhh was an obvious eyecatcher at Ascot when getting no run in 3rd behind So You Think in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes. I know some felt he would have won that day but I did not agree. I thought he reaffirmed the impression that he had created at Ascot here, that he is clearly a Group 1 performer, going down all guns blazing. Where the opportunities will be for him now is another matter. His dam is stoutly bred and is a Group 1 winner over 12f but his sire, Pivotal, has sired 12 Group 1 winners and only two (both fillies) have won Group 1s at 10f+. If his pedigree is a mixed bag, the evidence of this race is that 10f is likely to be his maximum. It was notable how in the last 1/2f or so Nathaniel was comfortably on top. With Frankel set to step up in trip for the International and Champion Stakes it might be that his opportunities lie abroad. 

Twice Over ran another fine race and is a credit to his connections. He showed that he is still worth his place in similar contests. He was slightly stuck on the rail behind Nathaniel when Cityscape weakened on his outside and might have been that bit closer had he had a clean run. However, it made no difference to his finishing position. Where he goes from here remains to be seen because it looks as if Frankel will be heading to the Juddmonte International, a race which he won last year and finished 2nd in the year before. Sir Henry saddled both he and Midday for Prince Khalid Abdulla 12 months ago so it is perfectly plausible that he might take his chance again against the mighty Frankel. 

Cityscape ran a fine race before his stamina gave and is well worth his chance back in 8f Group 1s, especially when the aforementioned Frankel (in the same ownership) steps up to 10f. He travelled well to look a real threat early in the straight but weakened markedly inside the final two furlongs. I would say he just about stays 9f but not a yard more. Races like the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions' Day must be on his agenda.

Crackerjack King is not the most fluent of movers. I would describe him as scratchy or scrabbly, neither complimentary. Either way, a firmer surface is likely to suit but he weakened out of it a little disappointingly I thought. I read that connections are looking at the Arlington Million which would appear sensible because I doubt he is up to winning a Group 1 on these shores on this evidence.

Bonfire did nothing but bang another big nail in the coffin of the 3yos. So far, only Camelot has escaped their mediocrity at the top level. You would like to think that at least a couple may emerge from the pack for the back end races but I think Bonfire is one to cross off the list. There are plenty of promising types who still have the potential to come to the rescue. He pulled far too hard, he has a dodgy temperament and he has no physical scope to progress. He has (or had) a tall reputation, now severely dented for obvious reasons, but I suspect he may continue to be overbet. He looks well worth opposing to me wherever he goes.

Sri Putra was quite worked up in the preliminaries and did not run his usual race. He was beaten 19 lengths into 7th. It was May 2010 and 15 runs ago when he was last beaten further. Those previous 14 runs have included 8 Group 1 races too. He will not be winning at this level but it is entirely possible that he will run into the money again at a huge price as he has done before.

Monterosso looked as if he would come on for the run but this was still a very poor effort. He was struggling fully 4f from home and has question marks to answer now. 

City Style looked poor in his coat and forced the pace supposedly for the benefit if his stablemates Farhh and Monterosso. However, I suspect that he helped out Nathaniel at least as much and probably more.

Conclusions: For whatever reason (possibly the suspect King George form?) I think Nathaniel is underrated and he may well continue to be so even after this terrific performance. I expect him to improve and to take a leading hand in all of the top middle distance races later in the season. I think he is very good. The prospect of him renewing rivalries with Frankel (beaten 1/2 length on debut) is something to look forward to. Both Gosden and Buick hinted that a clash could happen (either at York or on Champions' Day) and the Rothschilds seem happy to take up a challenge. We need horses good enough and connections brave enough to take Frankel on and Nathaniel and his team fit the bill nicely. He will not beat Frankel but he is as good as any other potential challenger.