The Betfair market indicates that there remains a significant degree of uncertainty about who will line-up for this year's race. Faugheen is a clear favourite and it is not difficult to see why after a wide margin Bumper success over this season's Grade 1 Tolworth 2nd, Josses Hill, at Punchestown last May and three facile hurdle victories this term. He won his Bumper over 2m on yielding and has won a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle over 3m on heavy and looked very good in both. In his five starts (including his Point to Point) he has registered the form comments; easily, impressive, not extended, easily and easily again. That in itself is fairly remarkable but it also hints at the extent to which Faugheen remains an unknown quantity. Whilst the positives are patently obvious, that is not to say that there are no doubts about him. He has yet to experience any pressure in a race whatsoever and what he will find and how he will respond are unknown. Of course, he may not need to come under pressure to win this but his reaction if his usual effortless rhythm is broken is not known. His hurdling has left a little to be desired at times and, whilst he might improve in that regard for a stronger pace, it is a concern however small. Willie Mullins also issued a downbeat bulletin on his wellbeing last week commenting "I've actually been a little disappointed with him recently but changed his feed routine last night". Furthermore, it is hardly unheard of for a Willie Mullins novice hurdle hotpot to get turned over at the Festival. One need only look back at this very race twelve months ago when Pont Alexandre could finish only 3rd as the 6/4f. For the reasons above his current quotes of 3/1 are not sufficiently tempting for the doubts to be put to one side.
Next in the market is Red Sherlock who, like Faugheen, will bring an unbeaten record to the race. His victories have earned him the form comments; hacked up, led last strides, stayed on well, eased towards finish, very easily and stayed on strongly closing stages. They do not quite challenge Faugheen but at least Red Sherlock comes into the race with the experience of a battle under his belt. His resolution was questioned after he swished his tail under pressure in his Ascot Bumper win ("flashed tail several times") but the way he kept on doggedly up the Cheltenham hill in heavy ground last time suggested those fears were misplaced. Although he was a Bumper winner over 2m on good ground at Cheltenham in Listed company the manner of his victories has suggested that he will excel over further. His win on Trials Day (2m5f on heavy) emphasised those qualities. He looks a high class horse but I wonder whether he might get caught out in a quicker race on better ground.
With the two market leaders discussed, I think there are reasons to be positive and negative about both, however, at the prices, I am willing to look elsewhere. I think both Faugheen and Red Sherlock are horses of considerable potential but are priced accordingly.
ROYAL BOY started his rules career over 2m at Cheltenham when finding only Champion Hurdle hope Melodic Rendezvous too strong. He was caught out wide rounding the home turn and Barry Geraghty gave him plenty of time to find his feet before asking for his effort. Ultimately it came too late but it was a most pleasing introduction. He was then pitched straight into Grade 1 company in the Tolworth Hurdle and started 5/2f, indicating the regard in which he was held by his connections and the public. He finished only 3rd but his jumping was poor and together with the fact he was not see again last season suggests he suffered a setback during the race. He returned this season with an abysmal effort over fences before being sent back over hurdles to collect a 2m6f Maiden Hurdle at Ascot in effortless style. He travelled as one would have hoped he would in that company but his jumping also took the eye. He dropped back in trip for a second attempt at the Tolworth Hurdle which resulted in a hard fought victory over promising stablemate, Josses Hill. The race was rearranged to Kempton after Sandown's abandonment and it was notable that he was able to win over the minimum distance on such a sharp track. The form has a fairly solid look to it (the worry being that none have been seen since) with the 142 rated Upazo beaten 11 1/2 lengths, the 138 rated Garde La Victoire another 4 1/2 lengths back in 3rd, the 142 rated The Liquidator in 5th beaten a further 4 1/2 lengths and the 138 rated Prince Siegfried 1 1/4 lengths off the back in 6th. It was impressive how the front two had it between them from some way out. The way Royal Boy travelled and jumped throughout was pleasing and then his battling qualities were apparent after the last under the McCoy drive. The step back up in trip promises to suit and it could be that he is beginning to fulfil his potential. Quotes of 12/1 make some appeal.
The second horse of interest has already been named above but how his current odds of 20/1 differ so greatly from his Cheltenham conqueror, Red Sherlock, I cannot understand. His name is RATHVINDEN. Hailing from the Closutton yard of Willie Mullins is, somewhat ironically, perhaps the reason why he is a bigger price than his form might warrant. Mullins already has Faugheen as his ace for this race but in Rathvinden he has a dangerous second string to his bow. He fell in his Point to Point when form comments would suggest he was the likely winner ("rapid progress to close 3rd going well after 2 out, joined leader approaching last where fell"). He then registered two comfortable successes in Bumpers, once for Ian Ferguson and once for Willie Mullins, followed by a Maiden Hurdle victory achieved in similarly straightforward fashion. During the hat-trick of victories the sum total of those he beat amounted to 'not much' but the manner of victory certainly suggested that Willie Mullins had another smart performer on his hands. He next headed across the Irish Sea to Warwick for the Grade 2 Neptune Trial, starting as the 2/1f. He settled well in rear before making a taking move on the outside down the back straight. That move was accompanied by three jumping errors, the last of which would prove his undoing. The first was minor and owed to him getting in too close, the second was no more than a stumble on landing, and the third was a rather guessy effort followed by him slithering on landing. Jumping mistakes aside, the progress he made was eyecatching and, whilst his departure was too early to suggest where he might have finished with any confidence, it is hard to imagine he would not have been in the mix at the very least. Just two weeks later he headed to Cheltenham for another Neptune Trial where sustained market support saw him again head the market at 6/4f against the unbeaten Red Sherlock at 9/4. For a number of reasons I think one can argue that the form might be reversed in March and, for those reasons, I find it hard to understand why his conqueror that day is generally 5/1 whilst he can be backed at as big as 20/1. Rathvinden was conceding Red Sherlock 3lbs and was beaten 2 1/2 lengths having been eased close home and, had he been ridden right out to the line (as the winner was), the margin might have been nearer 1 1/2 lengths making Rathvinden the best horse at the weights. The emphasis on stamina that day favoured Red Sherlock with Rathvinden the last to be asked for his effort, making progress on the winner approaching the last, before his effort weakened up the hill. Furthermore, it is worth remembering that this race came only two weeks after his Warwick effort so it is perfectly plausible that two trips across the water inside a fortnight could have taken the edge of him. Regardless of whether you think a form reversal is likely or not, I doubt many can argue that there should be such a large price discrepancy between the two. One thing that has been notable about both his starts on these shores has been his ability to make up ground quickly when asked, a trait that will stand him in very good stead come March and the hustle and bustle of the Festival. This is the quality that I suspect Red Sherlock may be found wanting for. I think 20/1 is much too big and it might just look even bigger if Faugheen continues to disappoint Willie Mullins in the lead-up to the Festival.
