Sprinter
Sacre has looked nothing short of exceptional this season with 5 wins from 5
starts and has barely been off the bridle doing so. He is rightly rated as one
of the best (if not the best) novice chaser for a very long time. From the
impression he has created it is very hard to argue with that. I, therefore,
find the very suggestion that another novice could possibly be rated higher
tricky to accept but that is the dilemma that Sanctuaire's scintillating win on
Saturday poses.
For
all his apparent brilliance, Sprinter Sacre's reputation relies to a large
extent on the impression he has created and the manner in which he has beaten
his rivals rather than who those rivals were. Sanctuaire had beaten nothing in
his first two starts but had done it in breathtaking fashion. I can honestly
say that his three starts this season would rank very highly in my list of
favourite races for the campaign. However, in the Celebration he went from
being an exciting novice chaser to a potential champion and in no uncertain
terms.
I have backed him at 66/1 EW for
the Champion Chase and I
am the first to admit that it was a speculative wager that was far more likely
to be written off before the end of the season than it was to have any
realistic chance of being a winner. My main reason was that the other
challengers looked so weak and so few and far between that a speculative bet on
a 66/1 shot who just might make up into a contender was worth a stab.
I backed him in the
Celebration as well at 11/2 but was concerned by the ground and the absence of
Ruby from the saddle who, until Saturday, was the only person to have won on
him. I was hopeful of a return but not in my wildest dreams did expect him to
pull out a performance of that quality. His jumping was absolutely superb, he
travelled strongly without pulling as he has done in the past, and he never
stopped in front and galloped right to the line. The thing which impressed me
most was the way that the others just could not make significant inroads into
his lead. Whether they cut him too much slack I do not know. However, I watched
the replay and Richard Johnson (and others) are niggling along down the back
straight long before the railway fences suggesting they were fully aware of the
situation. When their urgings became more serious they still failed to close
him down at anything other than a steady rate. They had got his lead down to
about 15 lengths at the last but when Daryl Jacob asked him to put the race to
bed after the last he drew away from them again by a couple of lengths. This
was what really struck me as being quite remarkable: to jump, travel and finish
as well as he did on ground as bad as that was deeply impressive.
I will admit to having a soft
spot for the horse. Even over hurdles he has always been one that I have kept a
close eye on. For some reason I seem to be drawn to flawed brilliance. I have
always thought he had the talent but his temperament was that (significant)
flaw in his make-up. It is pleasing that fences (and/or front-running tactics)
have (touch wood) put those problems to bed. He had looked sulky over hurdles
but has appeared to relish every yard of his three starts over fences.
It is also important to
establish some perspective here as well. He did not make his chasing debut
until 31st January this year. In those two starts he had beaten only 7 rivals
none of whom were rated higher than 130. On just his third start, three months
after his chasing debut, he tackles the Celebration. Of the 7 opponents, only
Dan Breen (148) was rated lower than 153, and Somersby, Wishfull Thinking and
French Opera were all rated 160+. It was a very good solid field but with
nothing that was tip-top class. I hoped Sanctuaire might be which was why I was
prepared to give him a chance. He fairly destroyed them from the front.
He was impressive but that is
of little benefit if the value of the form is not known. Sanctuaire's
Celebration performance is hard to rate because there were no horses anywhere
near him for most of the race. It is difficult but not impossible. If we crudely
assume 1lb per length (roughly correct and good enough for this purpose) then
his rating would come out as follows:
Somersby (166) beaten 17
lengths conceding 4lbs - 179
Dan Breen (148) beaten 19 (to
the nearest length) lengths - 167
French Opera (162) beaten 23
lengths - 185
Wishfull Thinking (164)
beaten 28 lengths - 192
West With The Wind (154)
beaten 31 lengths - 185
Woolcombe Folly (155) beaten
36 lengths - 191
Ignored Cornas (203 for
anybody interested!)
A literal interpretation of
the form means that he can only be rated lower than Sprinter Sacre by assuming
that Dan Breen has run to his mark of 148 and that everything else has run well
below form.
This is the view taken by the
BHA Handicappers who have allotted him a revised mark of 167 by using the
hellishly inconsistent Dan Breen as their yardstick. That might be the
case but it does seem a little convenient in
that it drops him nicely 2lbs below Sprinter Sacre. That is understandable
because I can imagine there would be a few astonished faces if Sprinter Sacre
were to be superceded at the top of the novice chase
division. However, I am far from comfortable with the use of Dan
Breen as the marker in this race. In fact, I would go so far as to say that it
is laughable. If Dan Breen has run to his mark of 148 then that would have the
rest of the field running to:
Somersby (166)
- Beat him 2 lengths giving 4lbs which puts him on 154 - 12lbs below form
French Opera
(162) - Beaten 4 lengths puts him on 144 - 18lbs below form
Wishfull
Thinking (164) - Beaten 9 lengths puts him on 139 - 25lbs below form
West With The
Wind (154) - Beaten 12 lengths puts him on 136 - 18lbs below form
Woolcombe Folly
(155) - Beaten 17 lengths puts him on 131 - 24lbs below form
Cornas ignored
I think both
Somersby and French Opera could be regarded as 'solid yardsticks' but the last
named was beaten at an early stage in the Celebration. The same cannot be said
of many of the others, Dan Breen included. If Somersby and French Opera have
run to form then they should finish level with Somersby conceding 4lbs. Somersby beat French Opera by nearly 6
lengths. For Somersby to have run below form, French Opera would have had to be
a lot below his mark which is not impossible.
If Somersby has run to his
mark of 166 (previous best performances have been at Ascot, another stiff right
handed track) then French Opera has run to 156. Both of those figures put
Sanctuaire onto 179. Dan Breen is the anomaly in the race and the above
interpretation of Somersby and French Opera's performances would put him up
12lbs to 160. Is Dan Breen a 160 horse? I do not think so on what we have seen
so far. He is rated 148 and I would find a mark of 155 believable but no more
than that. Dropping them all 5lbs to put Dan Breen on 155 puts Somersby to 161
(I have long held the view that he is a consistent 160ish horse anyway) and
French Opera to 151 (well below form, but he was beaten a long way out). Those
ratings put Sanctuaire onto 174. That compares to the Arkle winner Sprinter
Sacre on 169 and the Champion Chase winner Finian's Rainbow on 173. That
rating is arrived at using a fairly pessimistic view of the form (which I am
not totally convinced is justified). That gives him 5lbs in hand over Sprinter
Sacre and you need to keep chipping away to bring Sanctuaire back down below
him, unless, of course, you feel confident that the use of Dan Breen as a
marker is justifiable.
I find 174 as hard to believe
as you do, not least because of my apparent shrewdness in taking the 66/1 for
the Champion Chase a month or so ago. The above is only my view and my
interpretation of what appears the most likely scenario. I could be wrong, I
could be very wrong but there is a small chance I could be right. The last time
I did this exercise was with the Arkle and I consistently found that Cue Card
was 2nd best in the race. I could not have him at all for numerous reasons but,
needless to say, he finished a clear 2nd.
I am sure some will argue
that he was given too much slack on the front end but his jumping was so quick
and slick that I am not sure the rest had much choice. I am positive that the
other jockeys were aware of what was going on early in the race in that Richard
Johnson (and others) are noticeably niggling their mounts along after the water
jump (if not earlier). They knew what was going on and could do nothing about
it. Going down the back it is noticeable how much faster Sanctuaire is at his
fences compared to anything else.
There you have it, Sprinter
Sacre, unbeaten in 5, the best winner of the Arkle and the best
novice chaser for decades, and then up pops the mercurial Sanctuaire from out
of the blue to beat him to the title of champion novice (in my opinion at
least). I should qualify that by saying that I have not looked at Sprinter
Sacre and have assumed that his official rating is correct. It might easily be
the case that his rating does not reflect his achievements and it is almost
certainly the case that his rating does not reflect his ability.
Now the prices: Sprinter
Sacre is 5/4 and Sanctuaire is 12/1 for the 2013 Champion Chase. Which do I
prefer? I think the 5/4 is horrific compared to the 12/1 you can get on
Sanctuaire. I am certain that Sprinter Sacre has more in the locker but I think
Sanctuaire does too. I also think it can at least be argued that his
Celebration form is stronger than anything Sprinter Sacre has achieved. Both
are unbeaten over fences, both have been immensely impressive in all their
starts and I for one cannot wait for the Tingle Creek 2013 when we will find
out where they stand. I was finding it very hard to resist taking a bit of
the 12/1 and having done this analysis it is even harder. The one thing
stopping me is that I already have him at 66/1. If I did not have that tasty
ticket I would certainly be 'investing' a little. His performance has come from
so far out of the blue that it could be being underrated. I think he is at
least a serious challenger to Sprinter Sacre and I do not think it is anything
like the formality that the odds suggest that the Henderson superstar will come
out on top when they do meet. What is a certainty is that clash will be
something to savour.
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