Coral have priced up a market for the combined winning distance of Frankel in the Queen Anne Stakes on Tuesday and Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes on Saturday at Royal Ascot. The market is as follows:
- 4/5 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 6 lengths or more
- 7/4 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 8 lengths or more
- 7/2 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 10 lengths or more
- 7/1 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 12 lengths or more
- 12/1 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 14 lengths or more
When I first saw the market I commented that the 12/1 for a combined distance of 14 lengths or more was a "truly terrible bet". Here is why.
When determining winning distance bets Coral use (30.10):
- Nose - 0.05
- Short-Head - 0.1
- Head - 0.2
- Neck - 0.3
Queen Anne Stakes
The winning distances in the last 10 renewals were:
- 2011 - Canford Cliffs - 1
- 2010 - Goldikova - 0.3
- 2009 - Paco Boy - 1.5
- 2008 - Haradasun - 0.2
- 2007 - Ramonti - 0.1
- 2006 - Ad Valorem - 1.5
- 2005 - Valixir - 1.5
- 2004 - Refuse To Bend - 0.3
- 2003 - Dubai Destination - 4
- 2002 - No Excuse Needed - 0.1
- Total - 10.5
- Mean - 1.05
Diamond Jubilee Stakes
The winning distances in the last 10 renewals were:
- 2011 - Society Rock - 0.5
- 2010 - Starspangledbanner - 1.75
- 2009 - Art Connoisseur - 0.3
- 2008 - Kingsgate Native - 1.25
- 2007 - Soldier's Tale - 0.2
- 2006 - Les Arcs - 0.3
- 2005 - Cape Of Good Hope - 0.2
- 2004 - Fayr Jag - 0.2
- 2003 - Choisir - 0.5
- 2002 - Malhub - 1.5
- Total - 6.7
- Mean - 0.67
Frankel
Group 1 Races
- Dewhurst - 2.25
- 2000 Guineas - 6
- St James' Palace - 0.75
- Sussex - 5
- Queen Elizabeth II - 4
- Lockinge - 5
- Total - 23
- Mean - 3.83
Black Caviar
Group 1 Races
- Patinack Farm Classic - 4
- Lightning - 3.25
- Newmarket - 3
- William Reid - 1.75
- T J Smith - 2.75
- BTC Cup - 2
- Patinack Farm Classic - 2.75
- C F Orr - 3.25
- Lightning - 1.75
- Robert Sangster - 4.5
- Goodwood - 1.25
- Total - 30.25
- Mean - 2.75
Royal Ascot
According to the BHA Detailed Guide to Handicapping, "In
Flat races one length is typically reckoned to be worth three pounds in sprint
races, two pounds in mile races and one pound in staying races".
Frankel has an official rating of 138 with Excelebration next best on 125, then Strong Suit on 123, followed by Helmet on 119 and Worthadd on 118. If it is assumed that all horses run to their official ratings:
- Frankel
- Excelebration 6.5
- Strong Suit 7.5
- Helmet 9.5
- Worthadd 10
Black Caviar has an official rating of 130, Krypton Factor on 124 (achieved on Tapeta), Moonlight Cloud is next on 118 and Society Rock on 117. If they all run to their marks (with sex allowance applied):
- Black Caviar
- Krypton Factor 3
- Moonlight Cloud 4
- Society Rock 5.33
Assuming that all horses run to their marks then the combined winning distance would be 9.5 lengths.
However, there are a few reasons why this might not happen. The first is that horses do not run to their marks. Everything would be very easy if they did. Secondly, Frankel and Black Caviar's mean winning distances are 3.83 and 2.75 lengths respectively. Is it reasonable to expect their combined winning distances at Royal Ascot to exceed their combined mean winning distances in their Group 1 wins by nearly 3 lengths? I would argue not. Furthermore, Frankel has raced Excelebration on four occasions, beating him by 4, 2.25, 4 and 5 lengths. I can see no obvious reason to expect this margin (mean 3.8) to increase so dramatically to 6.5 lengths as their official ratings would imply. I would also suggest that it is unlikely that either Frankel or Black Caviar will be ridden out to maximise the winning distance.
Expectations
Longest winning distances in the past 10 renewals of the Queen Anne and Diamond Jubilee combined - 5.75.
Mean winning distances of the past 10 renewals of the Queen Anne and Diamond Jubilee combined - 1.72.
Longest winning distances in Frankel and Black Caviar's Group 1 races combined - 10.
Shortest winning distances in Frankel and Black Caviar's Group 1 races combined - 2.
Mean winning distances of Frankel and Black Caviar's Group 1 races combined - 6.58.
Expected winning distances of Frankel and Black Caviar in the Queen Anne and Diamond Jubilee as implied by their official ratings combined - 9.5.
Narrowing The Range
The above combinations give a range between 1.72 lengths to 9.5 lengths.
I think the historical data from the Queen Anne and Diamond Jubilee can be safely ignored. Over the past 10 renewals the mean career high official rating for Queen Anne winners was 123 and for Diamond Jubilee winners was 117.9. Frankel and Black Caviar, at 138 and 130 respectively, are far superior to an average winner.
Range between 2 lengths and 9.5 lengths.
Frankel's superiority over Excelebration is confirmed at around 4 lengths from 4 separate meetings. The smallest winning margin between the two of them (2.25), added to Black Caviar's smallest winning margin in Group 1s (1.25) is 3.5 lengths.
Range between 3.5 lengths and 9.5 lengths.
Using the previous point but for the opposite purpose, Frankel has never beaten Excelebration by further than 5 lengths in 4 races. If this distance is added to Black Caviar's expected winning distance as implied by official ratings that results in a combined distance of 9 lengths.
Range between 3.5 lengths and 9 lengths.
Frankel's 2.25 length beating of Excelebration in last year's St James' Palace Stakes was achieved recording an official rating of just 122, 8lbs below his peak figure at the time. Therefore, the three other races against Excelebration can be considered a more accurate reflection of his superiority (4, 4 and 5 lengths with a mean of 4.33). 4 lengths added to Black Caviar's smallest winning margin in Group 1s (1.25) is 5.25 lengths.
Range between 5.25 and 9 lengths.
It is hard to chip away at either end with any great confidence but I do think it is possible to arrive at a more definite conclusion. I think Frankel's winning distance can be determined by his form with Excelebration who will once again be his main opponent. Black Caviar's is more difficult to determine given that she has never faced any of her rivals with the exception of Ortensia. Her mean winning distance is 2.75 lengths and that, added to Frankel's 4.33 beating of Excelebration would give a combined winning distance of approximately 7 lengths.
Final estimate - 7 lengths.
Conclusion
The odds quoted by Coral are as follows:
- 4/5 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 6 lengths or more
- 7/4 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 8 lengths or more
- 7/2 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 10 lengths or more
- 7/1 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 12 lengths or more
- 12/1 Frankel and Black Caviar to win by a combined distance of 14 lengths or more
I think the 12/1 for 14 lengths or more is a "truly terrible price" as I said at first. I think the 7/1 for 12 lengths or more is possibly even worse and the 7/2 for 10 lengths or more not much better either. If Frankel's superiority over Excelebration is fairly well established at no more than 5 lengths, for either bet to come good would require Black Caviar to win by 7 lengths and 9 lengths respectively. At a scale of 3lbs per length for sprint trips, that equates to a superiority of 21lbs and 28lbs. If she does not exceed her official rating (130) then 2nd place can run to a mark of no higher than 109 or 102. There are numerous horses capable of exceeding that mark. If the likes of Krypton Factor, Moonlight Cloud and Society Rock run to their marks then Black Caviar will need to run to a figure something like 142 or 149 to win by the required margin. I cannot see that happening. Of course the above assumes that Frankel and Excelebration will run to their form which is no certainty. Moreover, all of the above makes the assumption that both Frankel and Black Caviar are going to win. Their prices of 1/5 and 1/3 respectively imply that there is a 37.5% chance that the double does not come off.
The prices I said were terrible are terrible and the others offer little in the way of value to tempt me into a bet. However, one positive is the fact that such a market is even available emphasises the extraordinary ability of these two unbeaten champions. Savour them whilst you still can.
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