Champion Chase 2014

The Queen Mother Champion Chase centres around whether the brilliant Sprinter Sacre lines up and, if he does, whether he is able to return to his best form. Make no mistake, Sprinter Sacre's best form would make him a very short price indeed to add a second Champion Chase to his record because the race appears to lack plenty in the way of strength in depth. It is, therefore, pertinent to point out that Sprinter Sacre is drifting on Betfair (last price matched was 2.4) because it is well known that the Betfair market has been a good indicator when it comes to news about to emerge from Seven Barrows. Nicky Henderson said only yesterday that a decision would be made in about ten days but it seems clear that the decision is a long way from being a definite yes at the moment.

Whether anything can be read into Henderson committing Captain Conan and Kid Cassidy to the race is questionable but twelve months ago Henderson was very happy to shunt Captain Conan up to the Jewson with Simonsig holding the stable aces in the Arkle. If Sprinter Sacre were showing the right signs (i.e. he's going to win the Queen Mother on the bridle) then it would be no surprise to see Henderson do the same this time around. The counter argument is that Captain Conan appeared to be found wanting for stamina in the Jewson (now JLT) last season so the Ryanair distance would likely prove elusive too. Furthermore, I believe (though cannot now track down the requisite quote) that Henderson also said Kid Cassidy was too high in the weights to contest handicaps. He is rated 156 and last year alone Henderson ran Tanks For That, French Opera and Petit Robin in the Grand Annual off marks of 151, 154 and 155 respectively. 156 is within the realms of marks that Henderson has asked his horses to defy in the past. Whatever one can deduce from the above, there are possibly reasons to suggest that all is not as rosy with Sprinter Sacre as one is led to believe.

Anyhow, the point is that Sprinter Sacre is far from a certain starter in the Champion Chase and the rest are beatable. Sire De Grugy (11/4) has swept all before him over 2m this season in Sprinter Sacre's absence but has shown a preference for ease underfoot and racecourses other than Prestbury Park. And, despite his fine exploits this season, there remains a nagging doubt about whether he is quite out of the very top drawer. For those reasons his price makes little appeal for all that he is the most likely to take advantage should Sprinter Sacre fail to face the starter.

The rest of the British challenge appears wafer thin: Captain Conan (12/1) has nothing in his form to suggest he is good enough to win a Champion Chase and has been absent since an underwhelming effort in the Tingle Creek; Kid Cassidy (16/1) failed to win the Grand Annual off a mark of 143 last season, is infamous for having a screw or two loose and has largely been disappointing aside from having Sire De Grugy's measure at Cheltenham back in November; Al Ferof (16/1) will very likely head to the Ryanair instead; Somersby (20/1) has never been suited by Cheltenham and has never been good enough and neither is likely to change at the age of ten; Module (20/1) only just had the measure of Dodging Bullets at Newbury last time; Hinterland (25/1) is more likely to go for the Arkle and has not been the easiest to keep right; Wishfull Thinking (40/1) is reportedly headed for the Byrne Group Plate; Astracad (100/1) is nowhere near good enough.

And so to the Irish: Benefficient (10/1) has Festival form but a 3/4L beating of Hidden Cyclone over Christmas leaves him some way short of Sire De Grugy (beat Hidden Cyclone a comfortable 11L at Ascot); Arvika Ligeonniere (12/1) has not excelled at Cheltenham in the past; Alderwood (20/1) has done just that but winning handicaps from marks of 139 and 140 is totally different to this; Baily Green (25/1) has run his best races over further except for his 2nd to the exceptional but below par Simonsig in last season's Arkle; Special Tiara (33/1) has been exposed as short of top class this season; Savello (50/1) doesn't look good enough.

Some of you may have noticed that there is one Champion Chase entry who has yet to be mentioned; Sizing Europe. He has been a top class horse for many seasons and has always reserved his best for Cheltenham in March (bar going wrong when looking the likely winner in the 2008 Champion Hurdle) and, I think, has been inexplicably dismissed from considerations on the back of one poor effort. He chased home Sprinter Sacre at both Cheltenham and Punchestown last season, made a pleasing (if nothing more) comeback at Gowran in October, then was beaten over 3m again before disappointing in the Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Andrew Lynch was very aggressive on him there, holding a ten length lead at halfway, and yet he was only swallowed up at the last. It is possible that age is catching up on him and he almost certainly is not quite the force of old but odds of 25/1 do him a massive disservice in a race lacking in depth after just one disappointing effort. There is a chance that he will instead run in the Ryanair Chase (for which he is 20/1) but the lure of another Champion Chase must be tempting if Sprinter Sacre is a no-show. It should be said that 20/1 NRNB makes appeal for the Ryanair too but is nothing like so tempting as the 25/1 for the Champion Chase. In addition, I read on Twitter that Andrew Lynch had said at an Irish Preview on Wednesday that Sizing Europe still has it in him to win a Champion Chase. That suggests a degree of commitment to the race and belief in his ability and I, for one, would love to see him take his chance to add another 2m crown to his roll of honour. Either way, there is nothing to lose since Bet Victor offer 25/1 with the NRNB concession. And that looks outstanding to my eye.