Neptune Novices' Hurdle 2014

The Betfair market indicates that there remains a significant degree of uncertainty about who will line-up for this year's race. Faugheen is a clear favourite and it is not difficult to see why after a wide margin Bumper success over this season's Grade 1 Tolworth 2nd, Josses Hill, at Punchestown last May and three facile hurdle victories this term.  He won his Bumper over 2m on yielding and has won a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle over 3m on heavy and looked very good in both. In his five starts (including his Point to Point) he has registered the form comments; easily, impressive, not extended, easily and easily again. That in itself is fairly remarkable but it also hints at the extent to which Faugheen remains an unknown quantity. Whilst the positives are patently obvious, that is not to say that there are no doubts about him. He has yet to experience any pressure in a race whatsoever and what he will find and how he will respond are unknown. Of course, he may not need to come under pressure to win this but his reaction if his usual effortless rhythm is broken is not known. His hurdling has left a little to be desired at times and, whilst he might improve in that regard for a stronger pace, it is a concern however small. Willie Mullins also issued a downbeat bulletin on his wellbeing last week commenting "I've actually been a little disappointed with him recently but changed his feed routine last night". Furthermore, it is hardly unheard of for a Willie Mullins novice hurdle hotpot to get turned over at the Festival. One need only look back at this very race twelve months ago when Pont Alexandre could finish only 3rd as the 6/4f. For the reasons above his current quotes of 3/1 are not sufficiently tempting for the doubts to be put to one side.

Next in the market is Red Sherlock who, like Faugheen, will bring an unbeaten record to the race. His victories have earned him the form comments; hacked up, led last strides, stayed on well, eased towards finish, very easily and stayed on strongly closing stages. They do not quite challenge Faugheen but at least Red Sherlock comes into the race with the experience of a battle under his belt. His resolution was questioned after he swished his tail under pressure in his Ascot Bumper win ("flashed tail several times") but the way he kept on doggedly up the Cheltenham hill in heavy ground last time suggested those fears were misplaced. Although he was a Bumper winner over 2m on good ground at Cheltenham in Listed company the manner of his victories has suggested that he will excel over further. His win on Trials Day (2m5f on heavy) emphasised those qualities. He looks a high class horse but I wonder whether he might get caught out in a quicker race on better ground.

With the two market leaders discussed, I think there are reasons to be positive and negative about both, however, at the prices, I am willing to look elsewhere. I think both Faugheen and Red Sherlock are horses of considerable potential but are priced accordingly. 

ROYAL BOY started his rules career over 2m at Cheltenham when finding only Champion Hurdle hope Melodic Rendezvous too strong. He was caught out wide rounding the home turn and Barry Geraghty gave him plenty of time to find his feet before asking for his effort. Ultimately it came too late but it was a most pleasing introduction. He was then pitched straight into Grade 1 company in the Tolworth Hurdle and started 5/2f, indicating the regard in which he was held by his connections and the public. He finished only 3rd but his jumping was poor and together with the fact he was not see again last season suggests he suffered a setback during the race. He returned this season with an abysmal effort over fences before being sent back over hurdles to collect a 2m6f Maiden Hurdle at Ascot in effortless style. He travelled as one would have hoped he would in that company but his jumping also took the eye. He dropped back in trip for a second attempt at the Tolworth Hurdle which resulted in a hard fought victory over promising stablemate, Josses Hill. The race was rearranged to Kempton after Sandown's abandonment and it was notable that he was able to win over the minimum distance on such a sharp track. The form has a fairly solid look to it (the worry being that none have been seen since) with the 142 rated Upazo beaten 11 1/2 lengths, the 138 rated Garde La Victoire another 4 1/2 lengths back in 3rd, the 142 rated The Liquidator in 5th beaten a further 4 1/2 lengths and the 138 rated Prince Siegfried 1 1/4 lengths off the back in 6th. It was impressive how the front two had it between them from some way out. The way Royal Boy travelled and jumped throughout was pleasing and then his battling qualities were apparent after the last under the McCoy drive. The step back up in trip promises to suit and it could be that he is beginning to fulfil his potential. Quotes of 12/1 make some appeal. 

The second horse of interest has already been named above but how his current odds of 20/1 differ so greatly from his Cheltenham conqueror, Red Sherlock, I cannot understand. His name is RATHVINDEN. Hailing from the Closutton yard of Willie Mullins is, somewhat ironically, perhaps the reason why he is a bigger price than his form might warrant. Mullins already has Faugheen as his ace for this race but in Rathvinden he has a dangerous second string to his bow. He fell in his Point to Point when form comments would suggest he was the likely winner ("rapid progress to close 3rd going well after 2 out, joined leader approaching last where fell"). He then registered two comfortable successes in Bumpers, once for Ian Ferguson and once for Willie Mullins, followed by a Maiden Hurdle victory achieved in similarly straightforward fashion. During the hat-trick of victories the sum total of those he beat amounted to 'not much' but the manner of victory certainly suggested that Willie Mullins had another smart performer on his hands. He next headed across the Irish Sea to Warwick for the Grade 2 Neptune Trial, starting as the 2/1f. He settled well in rear before making a taking move on the outside down the back straight. That move was accompanied by three jumping errors, the last of which would prove his undoing. The first was minor and owed to him getting in too close, the second was no more than a stumble on landing, and the third was a rather guessy effort followed by him slithering on landing. Jumping mistakes aside, the progress he made was eyecatching and, whilst his departure was too early to suggest where he might have finished with any confidence, it is hard to imagine he would not have been in the mix at the very least. Just two weeks later he headed to Cheltenham for another Neptune Trial where sustained market support saw him again head the market at 6/4f against the unbeaten Red Sherlock at 9/4. For a number of reasons I think one can argue that the form might be reversed in March and, for those reasons, I find it hard to understand why his conqueror that day is generally 5/1 whilst he can be backed at as big as 20/1. Rathvinden was conceding Red Sherlock 3lbs and was beaten 2 1/2 lengths having been eased close home and, had he been ridden right out to the line (as the winner was), the margin might have been nearer 1 1/2 lengths making Rathvinden the best horse at the weights. The emphasis on stamina that day favoured Red Sherlock with Rathvinden the last to be asked for his effort, making progress on the winner approaching the last, before his effort weakened up the hill. Furthermore, it is worth remembering that this race came only two weeks after his Warwick effort so it is perfectly plausible that two trips across the water inside a fortnight could have taken the edge of him. Regardless of whether you think a form reversal is likely or not, I doubt many can argue that there should be such a large price discrepancy between the two. One thing that has been notable about both his starts on these shores has been his ability to make up ground quickly when asked, a trait that will stand him in very good stead come March and the hustle and bustle of the Festival. This is the quality that I suspect Red Sherlock may be found wanting for. I think 20/1 is much too big and it might just look even bigger if Faugheen continues to disappoint Willie Mullins in the lead-up to the Festival.

Champion Chase 2014

The Queen Mother Champion Chase centres around whether the brilliant Sprinter Sacre lines up and, if he does, whether he is able to return to his best form. Make no mistake, Sprinter Sacre's best form would make him a very short price indeed to add a second Champion Chase to his record because the race appears to lack plenty in the way of strength in depth. It is, therefore, pertinent to point out that Sprinter Sacre is drifting on Betfair (last price matched was 2.4) because it is well known that the Betfair market has been a good indicator when it comes to news about to emerge from Seven Barrows. Nicky Henderson said only yesterday that a decision would be made in about ten days but it seems clear that the decision is a long way from being a definite yes at the moment.

Whether anything can be read into Henderson committing Captain Conan and Kid Cassidy to the race is questionable but twelve months ago Henderson was very happy to shunt Captain Conan up to the Jewson with Simonsig holding the stable aces in the Arkle. If Sprinter Sacre were showing the right signs (i.e. he's going to win the Queen Mother on the bridle) then it would be no surprise to see Henderson do the same this time around. The counter argument is that Captain Conan appeared to be found wanting for stamina in the Jewson (now JLT) last season so the Ryanair distance would likely prove elusive too. Furthermore, I believe (though cannot now track down the requisite quote) that Henderson also said Kid Cassidy was too high in the weights to contest handicaps. He is rated 156 and last year alone Henderson ran Tanks For That, French Opera and Petit Robin in the Grand Annual off marks of 151, 154 and 155 respectively. 156 is within the realms of marks that Henderson has asked his horses to defy in the past. Whatever one can deduce from the above, there are possibly reasons to suggest that all is not as rosy with Sprinter Sacre as one is led to believe.

Anyhow, the point is that Sprinter Sacre is far from a certain starter in the Champion Chase and the rest are beatable. Sire De Grugy (11/4) has swept all before him over 2m this season in Sprinter Sacre's absence but has shown a preference for ease underfoot and racecourses other than Prestbury Park. And, despite his fine exploits this season, there remains a nagging doubt about whether he is quite out of the very top drawer. For those reasons his price makes little appeal for all that he is the most likely to take advantage should Sprinter Sacre fail to face the starter.

The rest of the British challenge appears wafer thin: Captain Conan (12/1) has nothing in his form to suggest he is good enough to win a Champion Chase and has been absent since an underwhelming effort in the Tingle Creek; Kid Cassidy (16/1) failed to win the Grand Annual off a mark of 143 last season, is infamous for having a screw or two loose and has largely been disappointing aside from having Sire De Grugy's measure at Cheltenham back in November; Al Ferof (16/1) will very likely head to the Ryanair instead; Somersby (20/1) has never been suited by Cheltenham and has never been good enough and neither is likely to change at the age of ten; Module (20/1) only just had the measure of Dodging Bullets at Newbury last time; Hinterland (25/1) is more likely to go for the Arkle and has not been the easiest to keep right; Wishfull Thinking (40/1) is reportedly headed for the Byrne Group Plate; Astracad (100/1) is nowhere near good enough.

And so to the Irish: Benefficient (10/1) has Festival form but a 3/4L beating of Hidden Cyclone over Christmas leaves him some way short of Sire De Grugy (beat Hidden Cyclone a comfortable 11L at Ascot); Arvika Ligeonniere (12/1) has not excelled at Cheltenham in the past; Alderwood (20/1) has done just that but winning handicaps from marks of 139 and 140 is totally different to this; Baily Green (25/1) has run his best races over further except for his 2nd to the exceptional but below par Simonsig in last season's Arkle; Special Tiara (33/1) has been exposed as short of top class this season; Savello (50/1) doesn't look good enough.

Some of you may have noticed that there is one Champion Chase entry who has yet to be mentioned; Sizing Europe. He has been a top class horse for many seasons and has always reserved his best for Cheltenham in March (bar going wrong when looking the likely winner in the 2008 Champion Hurdle) and, I think, has been inexplicably dismissed from considerations on the back of one poor effort. He chased home Sprinter Sacre at both Cheltenham and Punchestown last season, made a pleasing (if nothing more) comeback at Gowran in October, then was beaten over 3m again before disappointing in the Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Andrew Lynch was very aggressive on him there, holding a ten length lead at halfway, and yet he was only swallowed up at the last. It is possible that age is catching up on him and he almost certainly is not quite the force of old but odds of 25/1 do him a massive disservice in a race lacking in depth after just one disappointing effort. There is a chance that he will instead run in the Ryanair Chase (for which he is 20/1) but the lure of another Champion Chase must be tempting if Sprinter Sacre is a no-show. It should be said that 20/1 NRNB makes appeal for the Ryanair too but is nothing like so tempting as the 25/1 for the Champion Chase. In addition, I read on Twitter that Andrew Lynch had said at an Irish Preview on Wednesday that Sizing Europe still has it in him to win a Champion Chase. That suggests a degree of commitment to the race and belief in his ability and I, for one, would love to see him take his chance to add another 2m crown to his roll of honour. Either way, there is nothing to lose since Bet Victor offer 25/1 with the NRNB concession. And that looks outstanding to my eye.

Simonsig Sized Shake-Up?

The Cheltenham Festival might seem a long way away but for National Hunt enthusiasts it is never far from our thoughts: as one four day extravaganza draws to a close our attentions turn to the next with a near seamless transition. Flat racing through the summer months offers an adequate substitute but little more than that and it is certainly no comparison to the 'proper' action which will begin in earnest in October. 

With that in mind, the very very interesting news that I promised. I am somewhat biased but I can think of few potential developments that would rank alongside let alone supersede this one. I have had questions, and lots of them. Is it a hurdler? Is it a chaser? Is it a novice? And so on. At the end of last season the answers would have been a definite 'no, yes, yes'. However, if what I have read is correct then the answers would be 'yes, no, no'. The horse in question is currently a short priced favourite for the Arkle and also features near the top of the Champion Hurdle market. His name is Simonsig.

Last season, Geraghty said that "he really wants a fence" and that "he'll be a better chaser than a hurdler I'd imagine which would make him very exciting". Henderson said that "he's done his bit now and that's probably the last time we'll see him over hurdles". Clearly the plan was to go chasing but I understand that David Minton said at the Million In Mind open day that the new plan was to stay over hurdles with the Champion Hurdle as his target. It is worth bearing in mind that Nicky Henderson has said in an interview with At The Races on 9th August that he "would like to think he's an Arkle horse". However, even that apparent declaration of intent provides clear evidence of a shift in their thinking. Henderson also said "if he went to fences" making it clear that Simonsig going chasing is no formality. There was also something strange about the question that Mick Fitzgerald asked. He asked about trip when surely the obvious question was hurdling or fences. Perhaps I am reading too much into it but it appeared that the matter was deliberately avoided. Another point of interest is that Minton was putting up Simonsig as his banker and charity bet in the Neptune at Festival Preview Evenings long before Henderson had committed him to the race. Is he one step ahead of the game once again?

Interestingly there has been a noticeable reaction in the Champion Hurdle market on Betfair with him being matched as low as 12.0 a week ago having been available at 18.5 the week before that, and nearer 25.0 not long before that. He has drifted a little subsequently after the Henderson interview but it would appear that the money has followed the news to a certain extent. It is also worth pointing out that he remains a clear favourite in the newly opened Arkle market on Betfair but has drifted a little from as low as 4.0 to 5.0, admittedly for small money. Whatever your interpretation of the market moves, Simonsig's Champion Hurdle market activity summary shows a marked downward trend, especially when compared to other leading contenders. Significant? Maybe.

It was clear that connections felt certain that chasing was his game. It does beg the question as to why this has possibly changed. One obvious reason is the presence of stablemate Sprinter Sacre in the 2m chase division, another is the abundance of novice chase prospects at Seven Barrows, also that Simonsig has schooled poorly or that Henderson has decided that the Champion Hurdle is up for grabs with his flying grey. 

Last season he showed that he had an exceptional engine but there was also evidence of possible jumping frailties. Quotes of 10/3 for the Arkle when he has never jumped a regulation fence in public and had jumped less than perfectly in his points and hurdle races are of little interest. As the saying goes, jumping is the name of the game, and an engine alone is not enough if the fences prove a continual problem. He would have won his points even easier had there been no obstacles standing in his path: his maiden at Kirkistown - http://www.p2ptv.ie/?tube=102 and a winners of two at Limavady - http://www.p2ptv.ie/?tube=104. Nevertheless, I think it is possible that too much has been made of his jumping by many. When he is good he is very good but he has yet to learn to shorten when required. There is every chance that will come with time and experience and when the hurdles/fences do not break his imperious stride he will take even more catching. 

I think both the Champion Hurdle and the Arkle are lacking a little in quality at this stage and Simonsig's claims in both look outstanding. A thorough perusal of the quoted Arkle contenders leaves one in little doubt that his short price is understandable. Similarly, in the Champion Hurdle, Hurricane Fly heads the market followed by Rock On Ruby, Spirit Son, Cinders And Ashes, Grandouet, Zarkandar and Darlan. The first thing to note is the dominance of Henderson. Does it suggest a lack of confidence in his challenge that Simonsig is possibly being rerouted? Or perhaps one should interpret it as a vote of confidence in Simonsig's chance? Certainly many or all of the above have question marks hanging over them, notably Hurricane Fly who will be a flat bred 9yo exposed off a strong pace, Spirit Son and Grandouet who have injury absences to overcome, and Cinders And Ashes and Darlan who looked the best of only a moderate bunch of 2m novices last season. The temptation for Henderson to play a trump card in the shape of Simonsig in the premier hurdle race of the season is understandable, especially if it means that he is kept away from his other ace in the pack, Sprinter Sacre.

I am indifferent to the news as a racing fan because the Arkle would have been great but the Champion Hurdle is just as good. As a betting man I am possibly rather pleased. He is 10/3 for the Arkle and 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle and I think he could win either. Unfortunately I was too slow to snaffle the juiciest prices for the Champion Hurdle on Betfair when I first heard the news but if he is indeed headed down that route then prices around the 14/1 mark make plenty of appeal, even with lingering uncertainty as to his chosen campaign. I think his current price allows for a deal of doubt about his target and, if my interpretation of the current situation is correct, he will be a good deal shorter in not very long. If I am wrong then so be it. With a run he rates as the most likely winner in my book and, at the prices, the gamble on his participation is one worth taking. It makes enough appeal for me to be sorely tempted to break my unwritten rule against antepost bets before the start of the season proper, adding him to my portfolio that currently includes Sanctuaire at 66/1 for the Champion Chase, Riverside Theatre at 75/1 for the King George/Gold Cup double and Silviniaco Conti at 33/1 for the King George. So very sorely tempted.

2pts Win Simonsig Champion Hurdle at around 15.0 on Betfair

Going For Gold

It is rare that an opportunity arises for a bet on Eventing and even rarer still that I think it might be a good idea to take up the offer. As it's the London Olympics and as the bookies have deigned to price up a markets it seems like an opportunity too unique to miss.

For a brief introduction to the sport of Eventing - Article - and to the British team - Article

Greenwich

It is worth bearing in mind that the Olympic competition in Greenwich Park will be far removed from what many combinations are used to. The terrain is hilly, the cross country course twisty and the atmosphere more intense than any will have experienced before. It is, therefore, sensible to have in mind what might be called the 'Greenwich Factor', that ability to handle the unique demands that this competition represents, when analysing what might happen. However, it is also important that too much is not made of it. It is likely that previous form will stand up in most cases, even if some will be better able to handle the unusual characteristics of the venue and the competition. Who is best prepared or best able to handle Greenwich is uncertain. I recently read an article in which Zara Phillips commented that her ride High Kingdom was suited to the course because he was small and manoeuvrable. In that same article Mary King said that her ride Imperial Cavalier was suited to the course because he was a big and powerful. In other words, a 'Greenwich Horse' is whatever the rider wants it to be, there is no pre-set ideal. However, regardless of physique, I think there is little doubt that rideability will be crucial. Valuable time will be wasted if a horse requires too much setting up and balancing for fences and tight corners.

Germany - 5/2

The German team are favourites on the back of a convincing success at the European Championships at  Luhmühlen last year. They are traditionally strong in the dressage phase but have increasingly become a force to be reckoned with throughout the competition. You can expect them to be leading heading into the jumping phases, the two questions are; by how far and can they maintain their lead? I think the answers are; probably quite a long way and yes.

• Michael Jung and Sam are the reigning World and European Champions and he is a strong favourite to be the first rider in history to hold all three major titles at the same time. Sam is strong in the dressage phase, has never had a XC jumping fault, is fast against the clock and has become an assured show jumper. 
• Sandra Auffarth and Opgun Louvo took the individual silver medal at the Europeans last year and their form since has been strong. Another bold showing likely.
• Ingrid Klimke is another who is likely to excel in the dressage on Butts Abraxxas. However, her jumping record is slightly chequered to say the least. Their XC record has the odd blip but it is the SJ that has proven their Achilles heal, typically having at least one fence down and often more, including when six fell at the Europeans last year to drop Ingrid out of individual medal contention. If things were to fall into place a brilliant result is by no means out of the question. 
• King Artus, ridden by Dirk Schrade, was 4th at the Europeans. Their dressage record is very solid but less exceptional than the first three riders named. However, their jumping record, both across the country and in the SJ, has been consistently good. 
• The final German rider is Peter Thomsen on Barny. Their jumping record is very strong indeed but their dressage scores are the weakest of the German team but still much better than the majority.

Conclusion: Reigning European and Olympic Champions and a strong chance of adding another Olympic Gold to their haul. In Michael Jung, Sandra Auffarth, Ingrid Klimke and Dirk Schrade they have four riders with realistic individual medal ambitions. Only three scores count leaving them with room for error, and Peter Thomsen is likely to provide very solid back up with a good score should the better dressage combinations fall by the wayside in the jumping phases.

Great Britain - 11/4

Great Britain has a fantastic record in Eventing and that success is expected to continue at the London Olympics. The British team boasts a wealth of experience in the shape of William Fox-Pitt, Mary King and Tina Cook, who have all participated in previous Olympics, and Zara Phillips and Nicola Wilson who both have considerable previous Championship experience. The British team did suffer the loss of Piggy French with both her rides, Jakata and Topper W, picking up late injuries. In particular, the latter named, winner of the Olympic Test Event at Greenwich last July, would have added invaluable course experience to the Team. 

• William Fox-Pitt had an embarrassment of riches to choose from but injuries to Cool Mountain and Olso limited his options. He rides Lionheart, a relatively inexperienced 10yo, but a horse who William describes as "made for Greenwich". His dressage has been consistently good but has yet to challenge the type of scores that the German Team can be expected to post. However, his scores are improving all the time and a new personal best is far from impossible. His career to date has been marked by a fabulous record in the SJ, something which may well be of added significance with two rounds.
• Mary King is the veteran of five previous Olympic Games and searches for that elusive Gold medal on Imperial Cavalier. They have posted dressage scores in the 30s before but not consistently. In the jumping phases they have been strong, bar a fall at the Europeans last year.
• Tina Cook rides Miners Frolic, who very nearly lost his life after a severe bout of colic just a year ago. They won team and individual Bronze medals at the Beijing Olympics and team and individual Gold at the Europeans in 2009 but have suffered mixed fortunes since. Their dressage has been consistent in the mid to low 40s, they are solid XC but the SJ has been a little mixed, including when three fell at Bramham earlier this year.
• Zara Phillips will attract much of the attention but she is well capable of handling the pressure as she has shown in the past. She rides High Kingdom, another relatively inexperienced horse, but one who is well balanced and rideable which should suit Greenwich. Their dressage is improving but remains a notch or two below what the Germans will be scoring .
• Nicola Wilson replaced Piggy French on the team and, riding Opposition Buzz, will resume her pathfinder role from recent Championships. Their dressage is the weakest phase but is going in the right direction but they are very reliable XC and good in the SJ.

Conclusion: Britain brings a strong team to these Championships seeking another Olympic medal. Everyone will want it to be Gold but I fear that Silver or Bronze is the best that we can realistically hope for. All horses will need to perform significant career bests in the dressage phase, jump double clears and hope for errors from the German team to win the Gold medal. That is not completely out of the question because the Germans have capitulated in dramatic style in the past.

New Zealand - 7/1

New Zealand produced a fine performance at the Kentucky World Equestrian Games in 2010 where they won team Bronze and Andrew Nicholson individual Bronze. Arguably they travel to London with a stronger team and they must not be underestimated.

• Andrew Nicholson is the man in form having posted a 1-2 at Barbury last month. He leaves Avebury in his stable in favour of his WEG Bronze medallist, Nereo. He is consistently good across all three phases and, in particular, his prowess in the SJ will serve him well in the individual competition.
• Mark Todd is something of an Eventing legend, winning back to back individual Olympic Golds on the mighty but diminutive Charisma. He retired from the sport but his subsequent return has seen him back as good as ever, winning Badminton for a 4th time in 2011 on Land Vision. That horse is injured so Mark rides the inexperienced 10yo, Campino. It is a big ask for the horse and maybe comes a year too soon but never discount the master and a bold showing is a distinct possibility.
• Caroline Powell and Lenamore return to the New Zealand team after the horse's 'retirement' from Championship selection. The 2010 Burghley Winner is now 19 years of age but remains as enthusiastic as ever. His dressage is solid, and could be very good if he keeps his cool, but he excels in the jumping phases. 
• Jonathan Paget and Clifton Promise bring solid 4* experience to the team. It is doubtful whether they quite have enough for individual honours but a solid team score can be expected.
• Jonelle Richards rides Flintstar. Their form is not the strongest in the competition and the New Zealanders will hope to post three superior scores.

Conclusion: The New Zealand team have four very solid riders, with Jonelle Richards the weak link. Andrew Nicholson has a good chance at an individual medal once again and, if two of the others put their best foot forward, then a team medal is theirs for the taking. 

Australia - 8/1

The Australian team is headed by the husband-wife duo of Clayton and Lucinda Fredericks. They have done well in past Olympic Games, winning team Gold in 1992, 1996 and 2000. 

• Bendigo III is the mount of Clayton Fredericks. They are one of few combinations that could challenge the Germans in the dressage phase. The SJ would perhaps be their weakest phase but they have definite individual medal prospects.
• Lucinda Fredericks rides Flying Finish who finished 2nd at Luhmühlen on their 4* debut. Their dressage has been strong throughout and so has their jumping record. The concern would be if the XC optimum time was tight. 
• Christopher Burton and Holstein Park Leilani showed exceptional form in Australia before moving to be based in Britain with the Olympics in mind. Since then, their record has been a little patchy with a unseat at Burghley and a disappointing SJ round at Pau last year. The two SJ rounds would be a concern as the mare also had a poor SJ record in Australia before Christopher took the ride.
• Those same comments apply to Sam Griffiths and Happy Times. Their last six FEI SJ rounds have yielded 12, 8, 12, 12, 12, 16. That has to be a major concern, but a 4th place at Badminton in 2011 show that they are well up to this level if the dreaded coloured poles do not start to fall.
• Andrew Hoy is an Australian team stalwart and rides the inexperienced Rutherglen. He is another who finds the SJ phase difficult but is capable of posting a good dressage score.

Conclusion: The Fredericks aside, the Aussie team looks to be at the mercy of the final phase with three out of five team members have poor recent records in the SJ. With doubts about Flying Finish's ability to make the time it would appear that their medal prospects could be vulnerable. 

USA - 10/1

The US team is coached by Captain Mark Phillips, father of Zara. In that respect he must have mixed emotions but I am sure he would settle for a victory for either party. He stands down from his position after the Games and no doubt he will want to end on a high.

• Boyd Martin and Otis Barbotiere fall into the solid category. Decent if unspectacular dressage and a good jumping record but lack that little extra to contend for Individual honours.
• The same comments apply to Karen O'Connor and Mr Medicott, previously a member of the German team when ridden by Frank Ostholt. 
• Tiana Coudray and Ringwood Magister have a less reliable record across country. They posted some dressage scores in the 30s in America but, since moving to the UK, have not got near that level. 
• William Coleman rides Twizzel. They have good form in America, with the occasional blip, but have yet to show the scores necessary for individual honours.
• Mystery Whisper is a new ride for Phillip Dutton this season but they already have three 3* wins in America together. Their run at Barbury recently suggests that they might still be behind the very best but Dutton is very experienced and well capable of challenging on the big occasion. 

Conclusion: The USA team looks to be a case of solid but unspectacular. It would be a surprise if they were able to challenge for the team Gold medal or individual medals but they have five solid riders who look sure to post good scores. 

Canada - 20/1

The surprise package at the 2010 World Equestrian Games, taking home the team Silver medal. However, it is very hard to make a convincing case for them to replicate their success here. 

France - 20/1

Team Gold medallists back in 2004 but less of a force now. They have 2008 Badminton winner Nicolas Touzaint and Hildago De L'Ile to spearhead their team. A team medal looks to be beyond them.

Holland - 40/1

Sweden - 40/1

Ireland - 50/1

Belgium - 66/1

Brazil - 125/1

Japan - 150/1

Conclusion

Much as I, and everyone else, would love to see a British triumph, it is very hard indeed to see past the German team. They have great strength in depth giving them room for error should it be required. Their strength in the first phase, which no other team comes close to matching, will likely give them a significant lead upon which they can build. The British are arguably next best but their price of 11/4 is far too short considering that the German team (5/2) is much stronger. How on earth the two can be joint favourites in places is beyond me. Perhaps the home advantage, perhaps the 'Greenwich Factor', perhaps something else, but, whatever the reason, they look much too short to me. New Zealand (7/1), Australia (8/1) and the USA (10/1) fill the second tier. Preference is for the former who look solid and capable of posting a very competitive score if things were to fall into place. In the shape of Nereo and Lenamore they have two proven top level performers likely to be competitive in the individual standings. If Mark Todd can conjure a career best from Campino then they could well challenge Britain for Silver. The advantage that the British have is they have five strong combinations where as Jonelle Richards is a weaker link for the Kiwis 5th rider. Australia have too many poor jumpers for them to be a safe proposition for a team medal and the USA lack a standout combination or two to propel them up the table.

Whatever may happen it is impossible to escape the conclusion that Germany are outstanding value at 5/2 to retain their Olympic Crown. I am fairly confident that we are into maximum bet territory.

5pts Win Germany Eventing Olympic Team Gold at 5/2 with Various

King George At Ascot

3.20 Summer Mile (1m) Group 2

Carlton House is the clear stand out performer here but he still has questions to answer; he has not faced 8f or soft(ish) ground since his Maiden days. Nevertheless, he us understandably a short priced favourite (4/5 best price) as he brings top tier Group 1 form to the table, something none of the others can boast in their recent form. He quickened smartly in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes last time suggesting that another drop in trip might be in his favour, especially as he has travelled keenly on both occasions this season over 10f. He should win but Questioning at 8/1 makes EW appeal. I backed him in the Cambridgeshire off of 99 last season when he got absolutely no run at all and he is now rated 114. Typical. This season, he has twice chased home proven mudlark Penitent in very soft ground and beat an admittedly below par Twice Over in the Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket in between. He appeared not to quite get home at Chester last time over 10f but has had a nice break since. His proven ability to handle softer ground and stay more than this 8f will stand him in good stead. 

1pt EW Questioning at 8/1 with Boylesports

4.35 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (1m4f) Group 1

This year's King George could hardly be better, featuring winners of the Arc, the King George, the Eclipse, the Breeders' Cup Turf, the Coronation Cup, the St Leger, the Melbourne Cup, the Hong Kong Vase, the Prix Du Jockey Club, the Grosser Preis Von Baden, the Grosser Preis Von Berlin, the Japanese Derby and so on. 10 horses who, together, have won 14 Group 1 races, won in 9 different countries and earned £14,177,127 in prize money. A brilliant race in prospect.

Nathaniel emerged victorious in a scrappy and unsatisfactory renewal last year. He had St Nicholas Abbey back in 3rd that day but it would be folly to read too much into the form. In two starts since Nathaniel has confirmed himself a colt of the highest calibre with a decent performance in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in far from ideal conditions and a convincing win in the Eclipse at Sandown two weeks ago. He also has another impressive course and distance win to his name in the King Edward VII at the Royal Meeting in 2011. His credentials are rock solid with conditions likely to be perfectly in his favour too. The one question mark is whether he is over his race in the Eclipse. If he is then he will take the beating and is my idea of the most likely winner. I have backed him accordingly at 3/1. 

Sea Moon started favourite for the St Leger after romping home in the Great Voltigeur on good to soft ground but could only finish 3rd after suffering a troubled passage. The ground was fast when he finished 3rd behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Breeders' Cup Turf but he was back with a bang in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, a race which had looked a deep renewal beforehand. He travelled and quickened well to stretch clear for a convincing success. I doubt he needs to find much improvement, if any, to take this and he has a strong chance.

St Nicholas Abbey was the antepost favourite but has now been usurped at the head of the market, and rightly so in my opinion. Arguably he is seen to better effect going left handed (Timeform ratings of 130/126/127/126/126 left handed and 114+/124/118/120/99 right handed at 4 and 5 years). That could be a red herring of sorts in that there can be little doubt that his major targets (perhaps with the exception of this race 12 months ago) have all been left handed. Nevertheless, it is something to consider. Moreover, his best performances have come on a sound surface, something that he will not get on Saturday, and something that both Nathaniel and Sea Moon, his major market rivals, have both shown a liking for.

Dunaden was a fast finishing 2nd in the Hardwicke behind Sea Moon after suffering trouble in running but I find it hard to believe that he would have beaten the winner, for all that he would have been closer. He is the type who could easily go close if things fall his way but I would expect Sea Moon to confirm the form regardless.

Danedream was a hugely impressive winner of the Arc last year and it may, therefore, seem surprising that she is available at 10/1. That is a reflection of both the strength of this race and the fact that she has yet to show anything like the same form in 3 subsequent starts. She took her time to show her best last season (24th July when winning her first Group 1 by 5 lengths) and if the same is true this time around she has to be a major threat.

Deep Brillante won the Japanese Derby on his last start and is the only 3yo in the field. He adds a great deal of interest, being something of an unknown quantity, but that also makes his chance difficult to determine. I have read that he can be keen and the ground would be another question mark.

Reliable Man won the French Derby last season but has been largely disappointing since. He ran with some promise at Ascot behind So You Think but it is hard to think he is good enough to win a race as strong as this.

Brown Panther was 2nd in the St Leger last year with Sea Moon back in 3rd. He was very poor at Chester on his seasonal reappearance but back to form (to a certain extent anyway) when winning a Listed race at Pontefract. Much more required to win this.

Masked Marvel won the St Leger, ahead of both Sea Moon and Brown Panther, but has been disappointing since. He, understandably, flopped in the Arc and has had the ground and track as excuses this season. Once again, the ground will not be in his favour.

Robin Hood is the Ballydoyle pacemaker for St Nicholas Abbey.

Conclusion: So long as he is over his Eclipse exertions I fancy Nathaniel to once again confirm himself as a horse of the highest calibre. Everything apart from the shorter than ideal break is in his favour. Sea Moon, who is progressive, rates the main danger with ground and track question marks for St Nicholas Abbey. Danedream has a big chance if she can recapture her Arc form but has not looked the same horse this season.

2pts Win Nathaniel at 3/1 with Paddy Power (Antepost)

Also going to throw some double arrows:

1pt EW Questioning at 8/1 and Nathaniel at 11/4 with Stan James

1pt EW Carlton House at 4/5 and Sea Moon at 3/1 with Paddy Power

An Eclipse Evaluation

There can be little doubt that the absence of So You Think from the Coral Eclipse detracted from the race. He set the bar to which the others would need to rise. However, whether you are inclined to believe the injury story or whether you look upon his late withdrawal with a degree of cynicism, let that not detract from the race. It may not have been the best 10f field ever assembled but it was a good contest nevertheless. It was a great spectacle up the home straight and I am in little doubt that the winner is a very good horse indeed. See the replay here.

I said before the race that Nathaniel's misfortune at Ascot in the Champion Stakes had been overlooked in the hysteria surrounding Farhh's unlucky run at Royal Ascot. Here, again, was the recency bias in evidence. It is all too easy to remember what happened 2 weeks ago, and all too easy to forget what happened 9 months ago. His profile had been that of a progressive horse, and that impression was confirmed with an authoritative success in the King George last July. The form of that race needs treating with caution given the farcically slow early pace but it did indicate that Nathaniel was a force to be reckoned with in the top middle distance races. For some reason he appears to have been labelled as 'just a stayer' despite there being plenty of evidence to the contrary. That King George victory, where he quickened well off the slow pace to run out a convincing winner, being one example. He then missed the Arc on account of the ground being too quick and returned to Ascot for his first try at 10f. The field for the Champion Stakes was greater in quality, quantity and depth than the Eclipse and yet he was a well supported 5/1 2nd favourite. In the end, nothing went his way and he finished only 5th but that was by no means a fair reflection of his ability. He had been drawn wide, was forced to use up energy to get across to lead, was then taken on for the lead by Ransome Note, before getting swamped, squeezed for room on the rail and not given a hard time once his chance had gone. I saw a run full of promise and it did nothing to dissuade me from my opinion that he was a very good horse. I know many, understandably I suppose, felt it was confirmation that he was not up to the highest level over 10f but I think that was to make too harsh an assessment on the form. I doubt he was good enough to win but, in my mind, he was undoubtedly a good deal better than the bare form and, given the strength of the race (Cirrus Des Aigles, So You Think, Snow Fairy and Midday were the four ahead of him), that was a most creditable effort.

He had missed his intended prep race for the Eclipse in the Brigadier Gerard after a dirty scope which raised questions as to how ready he would be for his first run back. Trainer John Gosden had said that he was fit but likely to benefit from the run and that was exactly the visual impression I got from the paddock. He looked fit, let there be no doubt about it, but he also looked as if there was a little improvement to come. I have read plenty on the matter which would suggest that fitness is a black and white issue, fit or unfit, when it is palpably grey.

The race went pretty much to plan. City Style, the Godolphin pacemaker, set a good tempo which he was able to sit behind. When City Style faded entering the straight, Nathaniel was left in front over 3f from home. By this stage Monterosso was already struggling and it was Cityscape and Farhh who looked the main dangers. When I say pretty much to plan I mean that I am sure Buick would have preferred a lead for another furlong. However, he did not have that luxury and it was not needed either. He first saw off the challenge of Cityscape, who looked a blatant non-stayer, and then Farhh, who looked briefly like he might go past him. However, inside the final furlong it was Nathaniel who was well on top. Whether he was idling in front or whether Farhh weakened a little inside the final furlong I do not know but it appeared as if Nathaniel pulled out a little more when Frankie and Farhh ranged up alongside. I would be inclined to go with the former judging by the relative proximity of Twice Over. It is a small point but suggests that there was a little more left in the tank and that a return to 12f may see him to even better effect as you might expect. If the King George does not come too soon he will hold outstanding claims even if the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Sea Moon take their chances. 

Farhh was an obvious eyecatcher at Ascot when getting no run in 3rd behind So You Think in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes. I know some felt he would have won that day but I did not agree. I thought he reaffirmed the impression that he had created at Ascot here, that he is clearly a Group 1 performer, going down all guns blazing. Where the opportunities will be for him now is another matter. His dam is stoutly bred and is a Group 1 winner over 12f but his sire, Pivotal, has sired 12 Group 1 winners and only two (both fillies) have won Group 1s at 10f+. If his pedigree is a mixed bag, the evidence of this race is that 10f is likely to be his maximum. It was notable how in the last 1/2f or so Nathaniel was comfortably on top. With Frankel set to step up in trip for the International and Champion Stakes it might be that his opportunities lie abroad. 

Twice Over ran another fine race and is a credit to his connections. He showed that he is still worth his place in similar contests. He was slightly stuck on the rail behind Nathaniel when Cityscape weakened on his outside and might have been that bit closer had he had a clean run. However, it made no difference to his finishing position. Where he goes from here remains to be seen because it looks as if Frankel will be heading to the Juddmonte International, a race which he won last year and finished 2nd in the year before. Sir Henry saddled both he and Midday for Prince Khalid Abdulla 12 months ago so it is perfectly plausible that he might take his chance again against the mighty Frankel. 

Cityscape ran a fine race before his stamina gave and is well worth his chance back in 8f Group 1s, especially when the aforementioned Frankel (in the same ownership) steps up to 10f. He travelled well to look a real threat early in the straight but weakened markedly inside the final two furlongs. I would say he just about stays 9f but not a yard more. Races like the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions' Day must be on his agenda.

Crackerjack King is not the most fluent of movers. I would describe him as scratchy or scrabbly, neither complimentary. Either way, a firmer surface is likely to suit but he weakened out of it a little disappointingly I thought. I read that connections are looking at the Arlington Million which would appear sensible because I doubt he is up to winning a Group 1 on these shores on this evidence.

Bonfire did nothing but bang another big nail in the coffin of the 3yos. So far, only Camelot has escaped their mediocrity at the top level. You would like to think that at least a couple may emerge from the pack for the back end races but I think Bonfire is one to cross off the list. There are plenty of promising types who still have the potential to come to the rescue. He pulled far too hard, he has a dodgy temperament and he has no physical scope to progress. He has (or had) a tall reputation, now severely dented for obvious reasons, but I suspect he may continue to be overbet. He looks well worth opposing to me wherever he goes.

Sri Putra was quite worked up in the preliminaries and did not run his usual race. He was beaten 19 lengths into 7th. It was May 2010 and 15 runs ago when he was last beaten further. Those previous 14 runs have included 8 Group 1 races too. He will not be winning at this level but it is entirely possible that he will run into the money again at a huge price as he has done before.

Monterosso looked as if he would come on for the run but this was still a very poor effort. He was struggling fully 4f from home and has question marks to answer now. 

City Style looked poor in his coat and forced the pace supposedly for the benefit if his stablemates Farhh and Monterosso. However, I suspect that he helped out Nathaniel at least as much and probably more.

Conclusions: For whatever reason (possibly the suspect King George form?) I think Nathaniel is underrated and he may well continue to be so even after this terrific performance. I expect him to improve and to take a leading hand in all of the top middle distance races later in the season. I think he is very good. The prospect of him renewing rivalries with Frankel (beaten 1/2 length on debut) is something to look forward to. Both Gosden and Buick hinted that a clash could happen (either at York or on Champions' Day) and the Rothschilds seem happy to take up a challenge. We need horses good enough and connections brave enough to take Frankel on and Nathaniel and his team fit the bill nicely. He will not beat Frankel but he is as good as any other potential challenger. 

It's All About Black Caviar

After Frankel's scintillating 11 length win in the first race of the meeting, the Queen Anne Stakes on Tuesday, many were expecting the Australian superstar Black Caviar to provide a similar conclusion in Saturday's Diamond Jubilee Stakes. In the end, the great mare won but not in the manner or style that we had anticipated.

There are numerous possible reasons to explain her disappointing performance. She won, which is what she came to do, but her actual performance was significantly inferior to both the performance we were expecting and the performance she is capable of. Perhaps it was the journey, the long season, the track, the ground, her minor injury, or perhaps she is not the horse she was. Whatever the explanation, there can be little doubt that the racegoers who flocked to Ascot on Saturday did not get to see her at her peak. I would be hugely surprised if there were not some validity in some of the reasons offered for her below par showing, but I cannot help but be puzzled by some comments. 

Before the race, my impression was that all was well in the Black Caviar camp, if not better than it had ever been. Her trainer, Peter Moody, commented: "When I saw her when I got here, I saw the same horse as the one that left. She's done really well, in fact so well that she may have to have a serious workout before Saturday", and that "Physically she is the fittest I've had her for two years. I can't fault her". It appears that Moody was as happy as he could be with the condition and fitness of his horse heading into the race. He was also confident about the result: "Facts and figures tell you that any opposition in the world would struggle to measure up to her", "she has this aura of invincibility" and "I would feel brave enough and cocky enough to suggest Black Caviar would have given them a good towelling in the King's Stand." Furthermore, her jockey, Luke Nolen, said "I'm feeling good and probably the reason for my confidence is that she is going so well", "we're enjoying it and I know the mare is going well". Connections were well aware of the risks attached in bringing her over but all the evidence suggests that they were delighted with her condition heading into the race.

After the race, the tone was a little different. I had only the pleasure of watching her on TV but, to my eye, connections, in particular Peter Moody, looked shell-shocked at what they had witnessed. No doubt many will point to Luke Nolen's "brain fade", but I suspect that Moody might have worn a similar expression without it. He was not expecting such a battle and it showed. Afterwards he said "she never travelled as strongly as she normally does and I had concerns half a mile out. She's had lots of niggles and she's carried us for a long time both a 10,000 mile journey into the equation and this was always going to be the greatest risk of her career" and "She's had a long season followed by a long trip and the owners are to be congratulated". All true and all valid points but if the travel was a problem, if the long season was a problem, if past niggles were a problem, why were the pre-race noises so overwhelmingly positive? The pre-race comments were so positive as to place a question mark over the explanations.

Nolen said "I think it was just due to the fact that she'd had a gruelling run", "I let her idle, that big engine shut down and I shit myself duly. I thought she'd coast but when I relaxed she came right back under me. It took me by surprise. She nearly carted me in Newmarket earlier in the week but she didn't bring that to the races with her". Nolen often eases up on the mare close home in Australia and did the same thing at Ascot and very nearly paid the ultimate price. Firstly, far too much has been made of the ride. In the context of the whole race it was minimal and was the difference between a length win and the rather uncomfortable head verdict. It was a glaring error and, therefore, and easy target but it should not be used to explain the performance. I thought the margin would have been less than a length regardless and that is still a long way short of what many were expecting. Nolen deserves great credit for his honesty about his mistake but I find his explanations more interesting. He was expecting her to cruise through the line as she does in Australia but she did nothing of the sort. It also hints to the idea that Nolen assumed he had the race won, that he must be sufficiently clear already, and he need not ride her out fully. Was this a result of underestimating the ability of the opposition or a result of the reasons offered above for her disappointing performance? I have read that he eased up because he wanted to go easy on her given that she was not herself. That is possible but I find myself tending towards the opposite explanation, that Nolen eased up because he had a good feeling from the mare and, therefore, must have had the race won. 

Perhaps my cynicism is getting the better of me and, as I say, I am sure there is validity in some explanations. What I find hard to accept is the huge swing from pre-race confidence to post-race explanations. 

However, let that not detract from what she achieved. In unfavourable circumstances she stretched her unbeaten record to 22 races, an astonishing feat. This was not the silky smooth Black Caviar that I have watched before; she did not travel with the same elan, she did not power clear of her rivals with her customary turn of foot, she did not saunter through the line with plenty left in the locker. We already knew that she had all those qualities but in winning the Diamond Jubilee she displayed attributes very different to those we normally see: she was tenacious and brave. I have never seen her required to display such virtues before, and let that be an indication of just how good she is. To beat the likes of Hay List on the bridle, without the need to battle, is a testament to her ability.

I had all but bought my tickets when it was announced that Saturday had sold out. In the morning I was beginning to think that I had made a terrible mistake. I am told that the atmosphere was unlike anything before experienced on a British racecourse and there was a real sense that something special was in the offing. This is both brilliant and worrying all at the same time. It is brilliant for obvious reasons but it is worrying because it took an Australian Champion, the second best horse in the World, to create it. I understand that her coming over was special and unique but was it, or should it, have been the highlight of the five day meeting? Ryan Moore commented beforehand that he felt the Black Caviar story had strayed into overkill. I think, to some extent, he has a point but, on the other hand, he is as wrong as wrong can be. We, the British racing public, can learn something from the Australians. They celebrate Champions far better than we do and it is phenomenal that their horse was the highlight of our meeting when our horse is the best in the World. I mean that in the best possible way. It was their excitement, their enthusiasm for their Champion which was so infectious. It is a travesty that the brilliance of Frankel, (arguably?) the best horse we have ever seen, was lost in the Black Caviar circus. And this is where Ryan is right. The Black Caviar story was overdone, but not in a negative way because it just filled the gaping chasm that we appear unable to fill. Ryan should have been commenting on how fed up he was of reading about Frankel. The mainstream media took to the Black Caviar story, and understandably so, but the horse they should have been writing about is Frankel. They came, they saw and they conquered, but, more importantly, they conquered our media. British racing can learn a lot from that.

She did not indulge us with her best, but let us be thankful that she came and thankful for what she brought with her. She brought unprecedented media interest and it is now our job to ensure that we generate the same level of coverage for our own stars. I have written far more about Black Caviar than I have about Frankel's Queen Anne so I am as guilty as any but be in no doubt that Frankel was the highlight of the meeting, and rightfully so. He is the best in the World, the best we have ever seen, an equine phenomenon. Now let us celebrate him like we are Australian.

Frankel In The Queen Anne

I expected Frankel to win by 4 or 5 lengths. I thought there was a chance it might be more, but that it was more likely to be less. I am pleased to report that I have never been happier to be so wrong. The margin was 11 lengths which left me with a fair amount of egg on my face and plenty of humble pie to munch. Neverthless, I am only too happy to swallow my pride to witness a performance of such utter brilliance. He is without doubt the best flat horse that I have ever seen even if my memory stretches back only so far. The arguments about who is the greatest will continue but I am in little doubt that it is Frankel who has the most ability. Timeform's new master rating of 147, the best in its 64 year history, confirms that. He is devastatingly good.

His 11 length winning margin was three lengths greater than any distance achieved in the past ten Royal Ascot meetings, a total of 300 races. What makes it all the more incredible is the fact that Excelebration, the 3rd best horse in the World according to Timeform behind Frankel and Black Caviar, was the horse who trailed in 11 lengths behind. If Frankel did not exist then Excelebration's form would read 411112111111 rather than 411213112122. Be in no doubt that he is a good deal better than Frankel makes him look. I said beforehand that Excelebration had not really tried to beat Frankel in the Lockinge but he certainly gave it his best shot in this, and ultimately paid the price. He was unable to live with Frankel when Queally put his foot to the floor and was a weary horse close home as Side Glance and Indomito closed him down. I only hope that he gets the opportunity to prove what he is capable of when Frankel takes on new challenges at 10f later in the year.

On the subject of Frankel and new challenges, it was pleasing to see Sir Henry giving the Coral Eclipse consideration after this performance. He looks more than ready for the step up to 10f now, and, scary as it may sound, I am convinced that he is going to be at least as good at the trip. He is so strong at the finish over 8f and has such a fast cruising speed that it is all but impossible to envisage anything challenging him, let alone lowering his colours. Nevertheless, new horizons will add still further to his burgeoning reputation and legacy. The antipodean monster that is So You Think successfully avenged his close defeat in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes 12 months ago. He is not the horse that we were told he was going to be but let that not detract from his achievements. He has been boldly campaigned and has produced consistent top class efforts. He is not in the same league as Frankel but is thoroughly likeable and would be an excellent 10f yardstick to measure Frankel's ability should they meet in the Eclipse. I already have my tickets for Sandown so hope that the time has come for Frankel to confirm his place at the top of the tree. 

Frankel also provided something of a body blow to the total winning distance bet (40.75 to 54.75 lengths at 7/4 with Stan James). The highest two-day total in the previous ten years was 30.55, recorded in 2003, which contributed to a final total of 56.05. Interestingly, the highest overall total (66.6 in 2004) was achieved with a relatively modest two-day total of 17.55. It is clear that all is not lost, even if it is now an uphill climb to the finish line. 

When a horse produces a performance of such brilliance, a few quid lost suddenly pales into insignificance. And so it should. It will be years, perhaps decades or even longer, until we see another like him. He is nothing short of exceptional. Enjoy him whilst you still can.

Royal Ascot Winning Distance

Now I am on the subject of winning distances I might as well carry on. The next one that caught my eye was Blue Square offering 3/1 about Frankel to be the widest margin winner of the week. I thought that looked a reasonable price considering I expect him to win by 4 or 5 lengths and I thought that 5 lengths might be sufficient to ensure a return. I was wrong.

The table above shows all the winning distances for the past five Royal Ascot meetings.

The longest winning distance has been 6, 5, 6, 7 and 6 lengths with a mean of 6 lengths. It is immediately clear that Frankel winning by 4 or 5 lengths is approaching or at the required level. If Frankel were to win by 5 lengths, then there is a chance that that would be enough, but, the data from the last 5 years would suggest that another length is required. 

However, the total winning distance offers some more interesting opportunities. The two bookmakers playing in this market are Stan James and Ladbrokes and the best prices and combinations available are:

• Under 42 lengths - Ladbrokes - 13/8
• 40.75-54.75 Lengths - Stan James - 7/4
• Over 54 - Ladbrokes 7/4
• Overround - 110.80%

The data from the past 5 years gives total winning distances of 47.4, 36.7, 50.75, 44.85 and 43 lengths. All bar the 36.7 falls within the middle category. A bet at 7/4 which would be made 4/5 times? Excellent, but more research required.

Above is an extended version of the previous table to include the last ten Royal Ascot meetings, including the one staged at York in 2005. 

The winning distance totals in ascending order are: 29.15, 36.7, 38.80, 42.25, 43, 44.85, 47.40, 50.75, 56.05, 66.6. At the past ten Royal Ascot meetings 5/10 have fallen within the range 40.75-54.75 offered by Stan James at 7/4. A bet at 7/4 on an even money chance it would appear. If York is excluded then 4/9 totals fall within the required range, or 44.4%. 7/4 represents a percentage chance of 36.63% so there is still a comfortable margin in hand. 

3/10 (30%) results fall into the under 42 category but odds of 13/8 represents a percentage chance of 38.10%. 2/10 (20%) results fall into the over 54 category but odds of 7/4 represents a percentage chance of 36.63%. If York is excluded then the figures are 3/9 ( 33.3%) and 2/9 (22.2%) respectively. Regardless of whether York is included or excluded, both the under 42 and over 54 categories represent poor value based on data from the past 10 years because there is a smaller chance of the total distance falling into either category than their odds imply. However, the opposite is true for the middle range between 40.75 and 54.75 lengths. Therefore, the 7/4 with Stan James rates a value bet.

1pt 40.75-54.75 Total Winning Distance at Royal Ascot with Stan James at 7/4